開啟輔助訪問
 找回密碼
 立即加入

91E 發展不佳對流消散

簽到天數: 241 天

[LV.8]以壇為家I

2014-5-17 07:09 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 krichard2011 於 2014-8-25 22:24 編輯

  基本資料  
    編號    : 91 E
    擾動編號日期2014 05 17 04  時
 消散日期  :
2014 0520 02  
 登陸地點  :

91E.INVEST.25kts-1008mb-8.9N-101.9W

本帖子中包含更多資源

您需要 登錄 才可以下載或查看,沒有帳號?立即加入

x

評分

參與人數 2水氣能量 +45 收起 理由
jwpk9899 + 15 昨天SSD有分析到這個系統
t02436 + 30 恭喜~加倍30mm^^

查看全部評分

簽到天數: 241 天

[LV.8]以壇為家I

krichard2011|2014-5-17 07:33 | 顯示全部樓層

NHC 18Z 給予
48小時內 10%
5天內 20% 有發展為熱帶氣旋的機會
An area of disturbed weather located several hundred miles south
of Acapulco, Mexico, is producing disorganized showers and a few
thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions could become a little
more conducive for development during the next few days while the
system moves slowly westward to west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent


目前結構改善很多
JTWC也給了風速25KT
稍後00Z評價大概會大幅提升
GFS數值也大致支持成旋
有機會變成今年風季東太第一旋

本帖子中包含更多資源

您需要 登錄 才可以下載或查看,沒有帳號?立即加入

x

評分

參與人數 1水氣能量 +10 收起 理由
t02436 + 10 贊一個!

查看全部評分

回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 2758 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2014-5-17 07:43 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 t02436 於 2014-5-17 07:44 編輯

這次是NRL偷跑
比NHC早編…

剛剛升評Medium
Satellite data indicate that a low pressure system has developed
several hundred miles south of Acapulco, Mexico. Shower and
thunderstorm activity has increased and become a little
better organized over the past several hours, and environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development
to occur during the next few days while the system moves slowly
westward to west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent


本帖子中包含更多資源

您需要 登錄 才可以下載或查看,沒有帳號?立即加入

x

點評

不對吧 它中心距離陸地有一段距離 就算離陸地很近也不一定不能發展阿  發表於 2014-5-17 22:18
其實阿大大91E低氣壓目前算是一隻先天發育不良的大傢伙,也因此它後續發展將須要比較多且不算短的時間整合太目前太靠近陸地了不樂觀。  發表於 2014-5-17 19:45

評分

參與人數 1水氣能量 +10 收起 理由
krichard2011 + 10 贊一個!

查看全部評分

回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 2758 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2014-5-18 07:47 | 顯示全部樓層
再度降評Low
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles
southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, continues to produce disorganized
showers and thunderstorms.  Any development of this system
is likely to be slow to occur during the next couple of days.
After that time, environmental conditions are expected to become
less conducive for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent



沒有乾空氣問題但頭頂10N就有強風切







本帖子中包含更多資源

您需要 登錄 才可以下載或查看,沒有帳號?立即加入

x

點評

91E INVEST 140518 0600 9.5N 109.1W EPAC 30 1007。JTWC悄悄的給了30Kts…  發表於 2014-5-18 20:09
基本上它所在位置只有海溫高而已 其他條件不是說很有利....  發表於 2014-5-18 11:02
回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 687 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

麻友飯|2014-5-18 22:19 | 顯示全部樓層
TCFA+HIGH

WTPN21 PHNC 181400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.4N 109.5W TO 11.8N 116.1W
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 181200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.7N 109.6W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.7N 109.6W,
APPROXIMATELY 625 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO, MEXICO. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF FLARING DEEP
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED AND POORLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). AN 180504Z ASCAT PASS REVEALED STRONG (20
TO 30 KNOT) WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK OF A BROAD AREA OF
TROUGHING WHILE WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY REMAINED
RELATIVELY WEAK AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE TO LOW (05 TO 15
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT 28 TO 29
DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18
TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
191400Z.//
NNNN

本帖子中包含更多資源

您需要 登錄 才可以下載或查看,沒有帳號?立即加入

x

點評

High是JTWC的 NHC還是維持Low 等等11AM就會再發報 到時再看看有無升評 NHC標準比較嚴格 [attachimg]40267[/attachimg]  詳情 回復 發表於 2014-5-18 22:44
回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 2758 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2014-5-18 22:44 | 顯示全部樓層
麻友飯 發表於 2014-5-18 22:19
TCFA+HIGH

WTPN21 PHNC 181400

High是JTWC的
NHC還是維持Low
等等11AM就會再發報
到時再看看有無升評

NHC標準比較嚴格
An elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles
southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, is producing a large area of
showers and thunderstorms.  Although this system lacks a
well-defined center of circulation, it is still producing winds to
near gale force in the eastern portion of the disturbance.
Development of this system should be slow to occur during the next
couple of days, unless a new center reforms farther east. After
that time, environmental conditions are expected to become
unfavorable for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent



本帖子中包含更多資源

您需要 登錄 才可以下載或查看,沒有帳號?立即加入

x
回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 241 天

[LV.8]以壇為家I

krichard2011|2014-5-19 08:37 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 krichard2011 於 2014-5-19 08:48 編輯

螺旋性雖然明顯
不過對流仍是消消長長
NHC也仍維持20%
整體來講還有待整合
環境方面大致沒有什麼大問題
由於之後預測可能暫時偏西移動
有利於避開北方強風切區域
未來發展還是值得觀察...

P.S. NHC 自從12Z 之後似乎就未再更新
看看稍後00Z會怎麼報



本帖子中包含更多資源

您需要 登錄 才可以下載或查看,沒有帳號?立即加入

x
回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 2758 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2014-5-19 22:03 | 顯示全部樓層
取消TCFA

THIS CANCELS REF A (WTPN21 PHNC 181400).
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.7N 109.6W,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.7N 112.7W, APPROXIMATELY 550 NM
SOUTH OF SOCORRO ISLAND, MEXICO. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME FURTHER
ELONGATED AND POORLY DEFINED WHILE CONVECTION HAS BECOME
LIMITED. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE ENVIRONMENT HAS
BECOME POOR AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS INCREASED TO
STRONG LEVELS (20 TO 25 KNOTS) WHICH IS OFFSETTING THE
FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW. FURTHERMORE, SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION ARE STARTING TO BECOME LESS
CONDUCIVE. DUE TO THE DECREASING ENVIRONMENT, THIS
SYSTEM IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.



本帖子中包含更多資源

您需要 登錄 才可以下載或查看,沒有帳號?立即加入

x

點評

勉強看得懂報文是說風切將轉強至20-25knots以及海溫轉差才會取消TCFA  發表於 2014-5-19 22:34
回復

使用道具 舉報

快速回覆
您需要登錄後才可以回帖 登錄 | 立即加入

本版積分規則

本平台僅供學術討論之用,預報應以氣象局為準

威普網站虛擬主機贊助公司

臺灣第一個天氣類型社群平台 即時天氣資訊、精準颱風動態

線上客服
FB傳送訊息
廣告行銷
精準行銷 物超所值
官方粉專
發佈 快速回復 返回頂部 返回列表