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90L 風切強勁中心登陸散架

簽到天數: 2760 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

2014-6-4 21:00 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 krichard2011 於 2014-8-25 22:21 編輯

  基本資料  
    編號    :90 L

    擾動編號日期2014 06 04 19  時
 消散日期  :
2014 060803  
 登陸地點  :墨西哥


90L.INVEST-20kts-1003mb-19N-94.5W


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就在 Boris 北邊沒多遠……  發表於 2014-6-4 21:09

評分

參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 收起 理由
krichard2011 + 15 贊一個!

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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2014-6-4 21:18 | 顯示全部樓層
補一下資料
NHC凌晨重評Low
兩日10% 五日20%


感覺就是GFS先前報出的微弱系統?

A stationary trough of low pressure over the Bay of Campeche is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Strong
upper-level winds will likely inhibit significant development of
this system.  However, this disturbance has the potential to
produce locally heavy rains during the next few days over
portions of southeastern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent



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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2014-6-5 20:40 | 顯示全部樓層
升評Medium

Showers and thunderstorms have recently increased near a low
pressure area over the southern Bay of Campeche.  Despite strong
upper-level winds, some further development of this system is
possible over the next day or two if the low remains offshore of
eastern Mexico.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate this system this afternoon, if necessary.
This disturbance has the potential to produce extremely heavy rains
and life-threatening flash floods and mud slides over portions of
southeastern Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent



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[LV.9]以壇為家II

Meow|2014-6-5 21:56 | 顯示全部樓層
AL, 90, 2014060512, , BEST, 0, 191N, 945W, 30, 1004, LO

風速已達 30 節,而且當地下午也可能有飛機實測,搞不好熱低 One-L 不遠了。
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[LV.9]以壇為家II

Meow|2014-6-6 23:29 | 顯示全部樓層
美國 2014 年首次熱帶氣旋飛機實測即將開始。

FLIGHT ONE -TEAL 71-
A. 06/1900Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 06/1615Z
D. 19.5N 95.0W
E. 06/1830Z TO 06/2300Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2014-6-7 00:19 | 顯示全部樓層
NHC加報升評High
Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that the
area of low pressure about 40 miles east of Veracruz, Mexico, has
become a little better defined this morning as it moves slowly
west-northwestward.  However, the associated thunderstorm activity
is currently poorly organized.  A tropical depression could form
before the low reaches the coast of eastern Mexico later today or
tonight. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled
to investigate this system this afternoon. Whether a tropical
depression forms or not, this disturbance could produce heavy rains,
along with life-threatening flash floods and mud slides, over
portions of southeastern and eastern Mexico during the next few
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent



另外FNMOC也掛出TCFA
只是是Fleet Weather Center Norfolk Virginia發出的?



目前風切強勁對流仍舊稀少…





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海軍艦隊氣象中心  發表於 2014-6-7 00:54
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[LV.8]以壇為家I

krichard2011|2014-6-7 11:23 | 顯示全部樓層
經過地面觀測與飛機實測
判定此低壓的中心在陸地上
於剛剛降評Medium 不過因相當接近海岸
仍不排除有發展機會 不過這風切真的是一大考驗 = =

1. Updated:  Surface observations and reports from an Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the center of the low pressure
system near Vera Cruz is just inland.  However, some chance for
development still remains because the center is very near the coast
and a slow and erratic motion is possible overnight.  Regardless of
whether any development occurs, this system will continue to produce
gusty winds and heavy rains, along with life-threatening flash
floods and mud slides, over portions of southeastern and eastern
Mexico during the next day or two.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

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飛機實測 34 節,看看 NHC 是否事後升格。  發表於 2014-6-7 12:42
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2014-6-7 16:02 | 顯示全部樓層
再降評Low
中心應該已經登陸了
1. Surface observations indicate that a well-defined low pressure
system has remained nearly stationary near Vera Cruz, Mexico. During
the past few hours, associated thunderstorm activity has decreased
significantly, and unfavorable upper-level winds and proximity to
land should inhibit any further development of this disturbance.
However, this system will continue to produce gusty winds and heavy
rains, along with life-threatening flash floods and mud slides, over
portions of southeastern and eastern Mexico during the next day or
two.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent



題外話
墨西哥南方有爆發大量對流
數值支持發展
有可能會編號 可以關注一下~





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我也好久沒有上過NCEP了 只知道有好一段時間都停在4月底 = =  發表於 2014-6-7 17:29
J18
喔!多謝!  發表於 2014-6-7 16:55
網址: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/tpm/emchurr/tcgen/  發表於 2014-6-7 16:55
J大 Google搜尋“NCEP TC"也找得到哦~  發表於 2014-6-7 16:54
K大 這兩個月好像只是換到另外一個網站而已 上禮拜又恢復正常了@@  發表於 2014-6-7 16:53
J18
糟糕我忘記這圖要在哪裡找!  發表於 2014-6-7 16:46
久違的NCEP系集圖停了快兩個月終於又回來了@@  發表於 2014-6-7 16:19
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