t02436

  四級颶風  
    編號：03 E
    名稱  : Cristina

  基本資料  
    擾動編號日期：2014 年 06 月 07 日 20  時(06.19 21:30 恢復編號)
　命名日期　　：2014 年 06 月 10 日 08  時
　消散日期　　：2014 年 06 月 16 日 23  時
　登陸地點　　：無

  巔峰時期資料  
　近中心最強風速 / 海平面最低氣壓
    國家颶風中心 (NHC) ：   130   kts  (  CAT 4  )
     海平面最低氣壓          ：   935   百帕

  過去路徑圖  

  討論帖圖片  
94E.INVEST-20kts-1006mb-11N-99W

以上資料來自 : NHC、颱風論壇整理製作

t02436

NHC編號後馬上評級
五日預報就給40%

A broad area of low pressure has formed several hundred miles south
of Acapulco, Mexico.  Although shower and thunderstorm activity is
poorly organized at this time, slow development of this system is
possible during the next several days as the low
drifts northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

對流相當猛烈
風切中等 渦度泛橙
看看能否發展

t02436

對流渦度也開始集中
稍早NHC升評Medium
下一報有機會給出High評
一個接一個啊@@

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located several hundred miles south of Acapulco, Mexico, have
continued to increase and become a little better organized over the
past several hours.  Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for development of this system during the next several
days as the low moves northwestward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

t02436

NHC稍早升評High

A low pressure system located about 150 miles south-southwest of
Zihuatanejo, Mexico, is showing signs of organization this morning.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development, and this system will likely become a tropical
depression during the next day or two while it moves generally
west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

對流有重新爆發
風切偏弱
應該能順利發展

麻友飯

JTWC TCFA

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 102.1W, IS
NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 102.3W, APPROXIMATELY 215 NM SOUTHEAST OF
MANZANILLO, MEXICO. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWLY CONSOLIDATED WITH FORMATIVE BANDS
CONCENTRATED ALONG THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF A PARTIALLY EXPOSED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
CYCLONE IS UNDERNEATH A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-10 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG SOUTEASTWARD OUTFLOW THAT IS
PROVIDING VENTILATION TO THE CONVECTION. ADDITIONALLY, ALONG-TRACK
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AT 30 DEGREES CELSIUS, ARE HIGHLY
CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

(t02436於2014.06.09 22:16補報文)

jwpk9899

經過一夜 94E的對流整個爆發
NHC編號03E囉  而且怎麼好像看到風眼?!
首報上看70kt

krichard2011

NHC上看CAT1
底層風眼大致已經成型
只差對流有待加強 不過稍早可見光已又有對流開始爆出
看是否能靠入夜之後來加強一下對流
西北側環境偏不過南方有水氣補充 短時間來看 影響應該不大
環境上大致OK 強度方面還是直得期待...

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/2100Z 15.4N 102.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  10/0600Z 15.5N 102.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
24H  10/1800Z 15.6N 103.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
36H  11/0600Z 15.7N 105.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
48H  11/1800Z 15.9N 106.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
72H  12/1800Z 16.6N 109.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
96H  13/1800Z 17.6N 112.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  14/1800Z 18.7N 114.3W   40 KT  45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

SHYUDOL

最新的一報  NHC命名Cristina
上看75KT

Tropical Storm CRISTINA

INIT  10/0300Z 15.5N 102.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  10/1200Z 15.5N 102.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
24H  11/0000Z 15.5N 104.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
36H  11/1200Z 15.6N 105.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
48H  12/0000Z 16.0N 106.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
72H  13/0000Z 17.0N 109.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
96H  14/0000Z 18.1N 111.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  15/0000Z 19.0N 113.5W   45 KT  50 MPH

$$