04E.Douglas 輾轉多日再度減弱

martin191919 · 2014-6-28 03:17

本帖最後由 krichard2011 於 2014-8-25 21:55 編輯

  熱帶風暴
編號：04 E
名稱  : Douglas

  基本資料
擾動編號日期：2014 年 06 月 28 日 03  時
　命名日期　　：2014 年 06 月 30 日 08  時
　消散日期　　：2014 年 07 月 06 日 13  時
　登陸地點　　：無

  巔峰時期資料
　近中心最強風速 / 海平面最低氣壓
國家颶風中心 (NHC) ：    40    kts  (  TS  )
海平面最低氣壓       ： 1001 百帕
  過去路徑圖

  討論帖圖片
96E.INVEST-20kts-1009mb-13N-101.3W

以上資料來自 : NHC、颱風論壇整理製作

martin191919 · 2014-6-28 03:23

本帖最後由 martin191919 於 2014-6-28 03:24 編輯

NHC : 40%

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALLT
TAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT FRI JUN 27 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms locatedseveral hundred miles south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, isassociated with a broad area of low pressure. Environmentalconditions appear favorable for development during the nextseveral days, and a tropical depression is likely to form byearly next week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Brown

krichard2011 · 2014-6-28 09:56

本帖最後由 krichard2011 於 2014-6-28 09:59 編輯

這若成真一定會是個藝術...
也可能會是藤原的最佳典範
GFS預測與另外一個系統互旋
然後手拉手轉圈圈一起北上

NHC 五天的生成機率為80%
成旋的機會應該不小
Broad low pressure centered a few hundred miles south of
Zihuatanejo, Mexico, is producing a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. The low's circulation is gradually
becoming better defined, and environmental conditions appear
conducive for the development of a tropical depression by early next
week while the system moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

martin191919 · 2014-6-28 20:11

NHC : 60%

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SAT JUN 28 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A broad low centered a few hundred miles south-southwest of
Manzanillo, Mexico, is producing a large area of showers and
thunderstorms. The low's circulation is gradually becoming better
defined, and environmental conditions appear conducive for the
development of a tropical depression by early next week while the
system moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

martin191919 · 2014-6-28 22:43

TCFA

WTPN21 PHNC 281500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.6N 103.5W TO 16.6N 111.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
281430Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N
104.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 14.0N 104.5W,
APPROXIMATELY 300 NM SOUTH OF MANZANILLO, MEXICO. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLOWLY-CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE LLCC. A 281346Z GMI 37 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS
MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A BROAD LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WITH LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD OUTFLOW. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES STEADY INTENSIFICATION AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

t02436 · 2014-6-29 08:18

NHC升格TD並上望50KT

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/2100Z 14.5N 105.8W 30 KT  35 MPH
12H  29/0600Z 15.3N 107.5W 30 KT  35 MPH
24H  29/1800Z 16.1N 110.5W 40 KT  45 MPH
36H  30/0600Z 16.7N 113.1W 45 KT  50 MPH
48H  30/1800Z 17.1N 114.9W 50 KT  60 MPH
72H  01/1800Z 17.5N 116.5W 50 KT  60 MPH
96H  02/1800Z 17.5N 118.0W 45 KT  50 MPH
120H  03/1800Z 17.5N 120.0W 40 KT  45MPH

目前對流還是呈現鬆散狀態
底層也有待發展

t02436 · 2014-6-30 00:51

本帖最後由 t02436 於 2014-6-30 08:21 編輯

NHC修正12Z的ATCF

認為12Z已經達到命名標準

EP, 04, 2014062912, , BEST, 0, 162N, 1097W, 35, 1005, TS, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 250, 80, 40, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, FOUR, M,

本身環流廣闊
整合就需耗費不少時間

周圍風切中偏弱
但前方乾區可能就是未來發展的重要關鍵了= =

t02436 · 2014-6-30 10:57

正式命名Douglas = =
強度上望50KT

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/0300Z 16.4N 113.0W 35 KT  40 MPH
12H  30/1200Z 17.0N 114.4W 40 KT  45 MPH
24H  01/0000Z 17.9N 115.7W 45 KT  50 MPH
36H  01/1200Z 18.4N 116.6W 50 KT  60 MPH
48H  02/0000Z 18.6N 117.2W 50 KT  60 MPH
72H  03/0000Z 18.8N 118.2W 40 KT  45 MPH
96H  04/0000Z 18.8N 119.2W 30 KT  35 MPH
120H  05/0000Z 18.8N 121.0W 25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW