01L.Arthur 六年以來登陸美國本土最強颶風

martin191919 · 2014-6-28 20:14

本帖最後由 t02436 於 2014-8-29 11:17 編輯

  二級颶風
編號：01 L
名稱  : Arthur

  基本資料
擾動編號日期：2014 年 06 月 28 日 20  時
命名日期　　：2014 年 07 月 01 日 20  時
　消散日期　　：2014 年 07 月 07 日 05  時
　登陸地點　　：美國北卡羅萊納州瞭望岬
　　　　　　　　加拿大 新斯科舍省梅特蘭港
　　　　　　　　加拿大 新不倫瑞克芬迪國家公園
　　　　　　　　加拿大 愛德華王子島

  巔峰時期資料
　近中心最強風速 / 海平面最低氣壓
國家颶風中心 (NHC) ： 85    kts  (  CAT.2  )
海平面最低氣壓       ： 976 百帕

  過去路徑圖

  討論帖圖片
91L.INVEST-20kts-NAmb-33N-78.5W

以上資料來自 : NHC、颱風論壇整理製作

martin191919 · 2014-6-28 20:18

NHC : 30%

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT JUN 28 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A weak low pressure system located just off the coast of South
Carolina is producing an area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to remain
conducive for gradual development of this system while
it drifts southward during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Brown

uodam64402 · 2014-6-28 22:59

本帖最後由 uodam64402 於 2014-6-28 23:06 編輯

這種緯度，感覺又會是一個可能會發展的副熱帶氣旋或是強溫帶氣旋了，以往這種地點常常生成一堆強溫旋。

不過根據國際標準時間2014年6月28日1:53分左右的ASCAT(METOP_B)衛星掃描，感覺風場還不是很完整的樣子。

J18 · 2014-6-29 16:57

哇!有熱帶擾動的氣壓在1017hpa的嗎?

krichard2011 · 2014-6-29 18:17

EC看好發展...倒是GFS就...
並且預測有機會增強到颶風等級
只是還能不能維持熱帶性質就不確定了
不過海溫還挺高的附近風切也不強...
目前環境看起來應該是支持的
以下是 +120 ~ +168 小時的EC 數值

krichard2011 · 2014-6-29 21:31

這隻發展的機率應該不小
五天的成旋機率高達70%
目前螺旋性已經看得出來
只是底層還有待加強

A low pressure system located about 230 miles east of Jacksonville,
Florida, continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms
as it moves slowly southward. Upper-level winds are only marginally
favorable, and proximity to dry air to the north of the disturbance
could inhibit formation of a tropical cyclone over the next couple
of days. By Wednesday, however, environmental conditions are
expected to become more conducive for development of this system
while it drifts southward and meanders offshore of the Florida east
coast. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled
to investigate this system this afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

t02436 · 2014-6-30 01:44

升評High
大西洋年度首颶極有可能是這隻
等等的飛機實測取消~

Satellite wind data and surface observations indicate that the low
pressure system located about 230 miles east of St. Augustine,
Florida, is gradually becoming better defined as it moves slowly
southward to southwestward. Although upper-level winds are only
marginally favorable, a tropical depression could still form during
the next day or two. However, the system's proximity to dry air
could inhibit significant development until environmental conditions
become more conducive by late Tuesday while the low meanders
offshore of the Florida east coast. The Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft that was scheduled to investigate the
disturbance this afternoon has been canceled, and the flight has
been rescheduled for Monday morning, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.