10E.Julio 高緯環境轉差持續減弱

t02436 · 2014-8-1 23:21

本帖最後由 t02436 於 2014-8-16 23:02 編輯

  三級颶風
  編號：10 E
  名稱：Julio

基本資料
　擾動編號日期：2014 年 08 月 01 日 23 時
　命名日期　　：2014 年 08 月 04 日 17 時
　消散日期　　：2014 年 08 月 15 日 23 時
　登陸地點　　：無
  巔峰時期資料
　近中心最強風速 / 海平面最低氣壓
　  國家颶風中心 (NHC)　  　：  100 kts  (  CAT.3  )
　  中太平洋颶風中心 (CPHC)：  105 kts  (  CAT.3  )
　  海平面最低氣壓　　　　：  962  百帕

  過去路徑圖

  討論帖圖片
97E.INVEST-20kts-1009mb-12N-107W

以上資料來自 : NHC、CPHC、颱風論壇整理製作

t02436 · 2014-8-2 00:12

補個資料
NHC評級Medium
五日給70%

1. A tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms
several hundred miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.
Environmental conditions are conducive for gradual development of
this system during the next several days while it moves westward at
10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

... · 2014-8-3 05:11

本帖最後由 ... 於 2014-8-3 06:33 編輯

給出TCFA. 報圖稍後補上NHC給HIGH 80%

WTPN23 PHNC 022000MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.1N 112.6W TO 12.5N 119.6WWITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFYISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSATIMAGERY AT 021830Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATEDNEAR 13.3N 113.4W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09KNOTS.2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 13.3N 113.4W, APPROXIMATELY 315 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CLARION ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE NORTHWEST. A 021717Z METOP-B MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO REVEALS THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT WITH FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING TOWARDS THE CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY GOOD OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO IMPROVED CONVECTION AND ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 032000Z.//NNNN

krichard2011 · 2014-8-3 21:33

這後期還滿有看頭的
GFS預測直撲夏威夷後
跨入西太平洋然後再度增強 @@
今年的東太貨還挺精彩的
如果真的連兩次的東太貨跨入西太平洋
應該也算是歷年罕見的 @@
東太

西太

t02436 · 2014-8-4 11:10

NHC升格10E
暫時上望75KT

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/0300Z 13.5N 116.9W 30 KT  35 MPH
12H  04/1200Z 13.3N 118.7W 35 KT  40 MPH
24H  05/0000Z 13.1N 121.1W 40 KT  45 MPH
36H  05/1200Z 13.0N 123.6W 50 KT  60 MPH
48H  06/0000Z 13.1N 126.2W 60 KT  70 MPH
72H  07/0000Z 13.8N 131.0W 70 KT  80 MPH
96H  08/0000Z 14.5N 136.2W 75 KT  85 MPH
120H  09/0000Z 15.0N 142.0W 75 KT  85 MPH

整體對流還算不錯
LLCC已經重新被覆蓋
暫時看來應該是暨09E之後撲向夏威夷的第二隻@@

CX723-A330 · 2014-8-4 16:20

已經測到TS風速(35kts)
Julio即將登場

t02436 · 2014-8-4 16:53

09Z正式命名Julio
風速調到40KT
暫時上望到80KT

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/0900Z 13.4N 118.4W 40 KT  45 MPH
12H  04/1800Z 13.3N 120.3W 45 KT  50 MPH
24H  05/0600Z 13.2N 122.9W 50 KT  60 MPH
36H  05/1800Z 13.3N 125.5W 55 KT  65 MPH
48H  06/0600Z 13.6N 128.1W 65 KT  75 MPH
72H  07/0600Z 14.4N 133.5W 75 KT  85 MPH
96H  08/0600Z 15.2N 139.0W 80 KT  90 MPH
120H  09/0600Z 16.0N 145.0W 80 KT  90 MPH