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11E.Karina 環境轉差持續減弱中

簽到天數: 588 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

2014-8-11 05:41 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 t02436 於 2014-8-29 08:21 編輯

  一級颶風    
  編號:11 E

  名稱:
Karina

基本資料
 擾動編號日期:2014 08 11 05
 命名日期  :2014 0813 22
 消散日期  :2014 08 29 05
 登陸地點  :

  巔峰時期資料  
 近中心最強風速 / 海平面最低氣壓

   國家颶風中心 (NHC)    :   70     kts  (  CAT.1  )

   海平面最低氣壓       :  988   百帕

  過去路徑圖  


  討論帖圖片  
99E.INVEST-20kts-1009mb-12.6N-96.9W


以上資料來自 : NHC颱風論壇整理製作

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參與人數 1水氣能量 +25 收起 理由
conan_4869012 + 25 贊一個!

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簽到天數: 2760 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2014-8-12 09:51 | 顯示全部樓層
升評Medium
1. Showers and thunderstorms have become better organized in
association with a tropical wave located a couple of hundred miles
southwest of Acapulco, Mexico.  Environmental conditions are
conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form within a few days while the system moves west-
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.


對流仍稍微鬆散
底層看似有些起色




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[LV.8]以壇為家I

krichard2011|2014-8-13 00:38 | 顯示全部樓層
NHC維持Medium
不過稍早JTWC搶先發佈TCFA
NHC五日預測成旋機率高達90%

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.3N
103.5W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 105.4W, APPROXIMATELY 34NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF  ACAPULCO, MEXICO. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FORMATIVE BANDS HAVE DEEPENED AND WRAPPED
TIGHTER INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF A RIDGE
AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW.
NUMERIC MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING THIS SYSTEM OVER THE
NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
20-25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006
MB. DUE TO THE INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF THE SYSTEM AND EXPECTED
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
1. A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is
located a few hundred miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.
Shower activity has not become any better organized since
yesterday, but environmental conditions remain conducive for
development, and a tropical depression could form within the
next day or two while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

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簽到天數: 2760 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2014-8-13 01:32 | 顯示全部樓層
NHC升評High
1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located a few hundred miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico
have become a little better organized.  Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical
depression could form tonight or on Wednesday while the system moves
westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

SSD開始分析
TXPZ26 KNES 121201
TCSENP

A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (99E)
B.  12/1130Z
C.  14.9N
D.  105.4W
E.  FIVE/GOES-W

F.  T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS
G.  IR/EIR/SWIR

H.  REMARKS...DT=1.0 BASED ON .2+ BANDING ON LOG10
SPIRAL. PT=1.0. MET=1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I.  ADDL POSITIONS

    NIL

...SCHWARTZ


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簽到天數: 498 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

...|2014-8-13 10:56 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 ... 於 2014-8-13 10:57 編輯


NHC將99E升為11E-TD尚未命名
預計路徑上將持續西行 強度上看C1

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簽到天數: 2760 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2014-8-13 10:58 | 顯示全部樓層
NHC升格11E
暫時上望70KT

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/0300Z 16.5N 108.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  13/1200Z 16.8N 110.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  14/0000Z 16.8N 112.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
36H  14/1200Z 16.7N 115.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
48H  15/0000Z 16.7N 117.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
72H  16/0000Z 17.0N 121.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
96H  17/0000Z 17.3N 124.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  18/0000Z 17.5N 127.0W   70 KT  80 MPH


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[LV.6]常住居民II

259012|2014-8-13 18:01 | 顯示全部樓層
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[LV.6]常住居民II

259012|2014-8-13 18:03 | 顯示全部樓層
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