THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.3N
103.5W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 105.4W, APPROXIMATELY 34NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FORMATIVE BANDS HAVE DEEPENED AND WRAPPED
TIGHTER INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF A RIDGE
AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW.
NUMERIC MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING THIS SYSTEM OVER THE
NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
20-25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006
MB. DUE TO THE INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF THE SYSTEM AND EXPECTED
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
1. A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is
located a few hundred miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.
Shower activity has not become any better organized since
yesterday, but environmental conditions remain conducive for
development, and a tropical depression could form within the
next day or two while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
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