Meow

  一級颶風    
  編號：11 E
  名稱：Karina

基本資料
　擾動編號日期：2014 年 08 月 11 日 05 時
　命名日期　　：2014 年 08 月 13 日 22 時
　消散日期　　：2014 年 08 月 29 日 05 時
　登陸地點　　：無
  巔峰時期資料  
　近中心最強風速 / 海平面最低氣壓
　  國家颶風中心 (NHC)　  　：   70     kts  (  CAT.1  )
　  海平面最低氣壓　　　　   ：  988   百帕

  過去路徑圖  

  討論帖圖片  
99E.INVEST-20kts-1009mb-12.6N-96.9W


以上資料來自 : NHC、颱風論壇整理製作

t02436

升評Medium

1. Showers and thunderstorms have become better organized in
association with a tropical wave located a couple of hundred miles
southwest of Acapulco, Mexico.  Environmental conditions are
conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form within a few days while the system moves west-
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

對流仍稍微鬆散
底層看似有些起色

krichard2011

NHC維持Medium
不過稍早JTWC搶先發佈TCFA
NHC五日預測成旋機率高達90%

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.3N
103.5W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 105.4W, APPROXIMATELY 34NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF  ACAPULCO, MEXICO. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FORMATIVE BANDS HAVE DEEPENED AND WRAPPED
TIGHTER INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF A RIDGE
AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW.
NUMERIC MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING THIS SYSTEM OVER THE
NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
20-25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006
MB. DUE TO THE INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF THE SYSTEM AND EXPECTED
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

1. A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is
located a few hundred miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.
Shower activity has not become any better organized since
yesterday, but environmental conditions remain conducive for
development, and a tropical depression could form within the
next day or two while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

t02436

NHC升評High

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located a few hundred miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico
have become a little better organized.  Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical
depression could form tonight or on Wednesday while the system moves
westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

SSD開始分析

TXPZ26 KNES 121201
TCSENP

A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (99E)
B.  12/1130Z
C.  14.9N
D.  105.4W
E.  FIVE/GOES-W

F.  T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS
G.  IR/EIR/SWIR

H.  REMARKS...DT=1.0 BASED ON .2+ BANDING ON LOG10
SPIRAL. PT=1.0. MET=1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I.  ADDL POSITIONS

    NIL

...SCHWARTZ

...

NHC將99E升為11E-TD尚未命名
預計路徑上將持續西行 強度上看C1

t02436

NHC升格11E
暫時上望70KT

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/0300Z 16.5N 108.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  13/1200Z 16.8N 110.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  14/0000Z 16.8N 112.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
36H  14/1200Z 16.7N 115.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
48H  15/0000Z 16.7N 117.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
72H  16/0000Z 17.0N 121.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
96H  17/0000Z 17.3N 124.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  18/0000Z 17.5N 127.0W   70 KT  80 MPH