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1414 風神 巔峰已過逐漸轉化中

簽到天數: 241 天

[LV.8]以壇為家I

2014-9-3 08:09 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 t02436 於 2014-9-18 16:11 編輯

  輕度颱風  
   編號:1414 ( 13 W )
   名稱: 風神 ( Fengshen )


  基本資料   
    擾動編號日期2014 09 03 07
    命名日期  :2014 09 07 08

 轉化日期  :2014 09 10 14

巔峰時期資料  
 近中心最強風速
 中央氣象局 (CWB):  30  m/s (   11 級  )
 日本氣象廳 (JMA) :  30  m/s (   55 KT )

    美國海軍 (JTWC)  :   60  kts   (    TS     )



 最低氣壓與暴風圈半徑
 海平面最低氣壓: 980 百帕
 七級風半徑  : 120 公里
 十級風半徑  :  50  公里
  過去路徑圖



  討論帖圖片  
91W.INVEST.15kts-NAmb-10.4N-135.7E


  衛星動畫合輯

中央氣象局
NOAA SSD


以上資料來自 : CWBJMAJTWC颱風論壇整理製作

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參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 收起 理由
t02436 + 15 贊一個!

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簽到天數: 76 天

[LV.6]常住居民II

陳俊閔|2014-9-3 08:14 | 顯示全部樓層
這是一個新的擾動西北太洋終於開始活躍後續動態也要特別注意。

點評

不要小看他 他可是專業廢文大師  發表於 2014-9-3 23:13
雲無疑爆得頗強勁,但好像中心附近風切偏強,很多雲也被切西,且看來要KO掉菲律賓中部的低壓方有發展轉機。  發表於 2014-9-3 09:37
感覺大大常常在回覆心得...0.0  發表於 2014-9-3 09:27
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2014-9-3 13:54 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC評級Low
AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.1N 136.3E,
APPROXIMATELY 142 NM NORTHWEST OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH AN ILL-DEFINED LLCC. A 030103Z METOP-B MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS
THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY BROADLY WRAPPING TOWARDS THE CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW TO
MODERATE (10 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND EXCELLENT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY THE TUTT CELL TO THE NORTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.




早上風場掃到25-30節
LLCC不明顯


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2個低層中心仍在較勁,但關島附近的那個開始取得主動權,對流發展相對較強  發表於 2014-9-3 14:59
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2014-9-3 21:14 | 顯示全部樓層
13Z提升評級至Medium
  THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.1N
136.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 135.2E, APPROXIMATELY 283 NM
NORTHWEST OF YAP. ANIMATED EIR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT
FLARING DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING LLCC. A
031023Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE BULK OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (10
TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS ENHANCED BY A
TUTT CELL LOCATED TO THE NORTH SUSTAINING THE PERSISTENT CONVECTION,
AS EVIDENT IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
IN THE AREA ALSO ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.  MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. DUE TO IMPROVED
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.




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經過一天後,形勢又有翻天覆地改變。原先取得主導的關島低壓,再次被菲律賓中部低壓趕過進度。  發表於 2014-9-4 13:09
可能對日本有害啊  發表於 2014-9-4 00:40
終於有個稍微像樣的系統出現,偏偏副高又要被完全打爆,無害系統確認  發表於 2014-9-3 23:36
西南季風已經有慢慢發展起來了.....  發表於 2014-9-3 22:02
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2014-9-4 14:14 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC再降評Low
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.3N
135.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 129.2E, APPROXIMATELY 480 NM EAST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF MID-LEVEL TURNING WITH FLARING DEEP
CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK. A 040129Z ASCAT PASS AND
JTWC SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATE LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING OF WEAK (05-15
KNOT) WINDS IN THE AREA, BUT NO DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). THE BROAD NATURE OF THIS TURNING IS ALSO APPARENT IN THE
CIMSS ANIMATED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOP. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
LOW (05 TO 10 KNOT) SOUTHERLY WIND SHEAR AND GOOD EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW, IN ADDITION TO A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTH PROVIDING A POLEWARD
CHANNEL. CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHWESTERLIES AND DIFFLUENT CONDITIONS
ALOFT ARE HELPING TO FUEL THE DEEP CONVECTION NOTED ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. DUE TO THE LACK OF A WELL DEFINED
LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.


JTWC跟SSD分析都找不到LLCC
TXPQ27 KNES 040314
TCSWNP
CCA

A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (91W)  
B.  04/0232Z
C.  11.8N
D.  130.9E
E.  FIVE/MTSAT  
F.  TOO WEAK

G.  IR/EIR/VIS
H.  REMARKS...THIS SYSTEM IS TOO WEAK TO CLASSIFY DUE TO LACK OF  
DISCERNIBLE CLOSED LLCC
.
  POSITION IS BASED ON MIX OF CLOUD  SYSTEM
CENTER ALONG A SHEAR AXIS.  THIS WILL BE THE FINAL BULLETIN UNLESS A  
T1.0 IS WARRANTED.

I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL  

...LIDDICK  
=======================================================
TPPN11 PGTW  040315
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 91W (N OF PALAU)
B. 04/0232Z
C. XX.X  
D. XXX.X
E. N/A/MTSAT
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS:  POSITION OF LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER COULD  NOT
BE FOUND.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   03/2301Z  13.5N   133.7E  SSMS
   04/0041Z  13.4N  134.0E  MMHS
   LONG


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感覺上90w跟91w像兩個一直在扯對方後腿的小孩子,整日下來兩個都在搶水氣喝一直在打架互毆。  發表於 2014-9-4 18:57
90W跟91W一直在拉扯 戰況好激烈  發表於 2014-9-4 14:20
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2014-9-5 07:43 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 t02436 於 2014-9-5 07:45 編輯

再度重回Medium
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.1N
129.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 129.9E, APPROXIMATELY 490 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MANILA. ANIMATED ENHANCED IR IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD
AREA OF MID-LEVEL TURNING WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION ALONG BOTH
THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. A 041808Z SSMI
MICROWAVE PASS AND 041235Z ASCAT PASS INFERS THAT THE SYSTEM IS
ACTUALLY LOCATED WELL NORTH OF WHERE IT PREVIOUSLY WAS POSITIONED.  
WHILE NO DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS EVIDENT, BASED ON
ASCAT AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES, THIS SYSTEM IS ESTIMATED TO BE
15-20 KTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH LOW (05 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND A TUTT CELL TO THE
NORTH PROVIDING A POLEWARD CHANNEL. ADDITIONALLY, GOOD EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW AND LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES ARE FUELING THE DEEP
CONVECTION NOTED ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.


JTWC重新分析T1.0
TPPN11 PGTW 042133
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 91W (N OF PALAU)
B. 04/2032Z
C. 17.2N
D. 129.9E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T1.0/1.0/S0.0/21HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .25 WRAP YIELDS A DT OF 1.0. MET
AGREES; PT WAS 1.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   04/1747Z  17.5N  131.1E  MMHS
   LONG



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[LV.6]常住居民II

陳俊閔|2014-9-5 12:41 | 顯示全部樓層
提示: 該帖被管理員或版主屏蔽
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[LV.9]以壇為家II

Meow|2014-9-5 21:43 | 顯示全部樓層
JMA 已經先在 09Z 升格它為熱低。

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參與人數 1水氣能量 +5 收起 理由
krichard2011 + 5 即時訊息~

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