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97B 中心登陸發展受限

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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

2014-9-6 01:08 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 t02436 於 2014-9-9 10:22 編輯

  基本資料     
    編號    :
97 B
    擾動編號日期2014 09 06 01
 消散日期  :
2014 09 09 08

97B.INVEST-15kts-1010mb-20.8N-87.3E

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參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 收起 理由
jwpk9899 + 15

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[LV.9]以壇為家II

Meow|2014-9-6 01:37 | 顯示全部樓層
這是 IMD 在 06Z 就發佈的,現在也有 low medium high 這樣的可能形成機會。

BAY OF BENGAL & ANDAMAN SEA:-
A LOW PRESSURE AREA HAS FORMED OVER NORTH BAY OF BENGAL OFF WEST BENGAL – BANGLADESH COASTS. BROKEN LOW OR MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTION OVER BAY OF BENGAL, ARAKAN COAST, GULF OF MARTABAN AND TENASSERIM COAST.
THE SYSTEM WOULD BECOME WELL MARKED DURING NEXT 48 HOURS.
PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS DURING NEXT 72 HRS: LOW
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2014-9-6 20:04 | 顯示全部樓層
IMD維持Low評
BAY OF BENGAL & ANDAMAN SEA:- A WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA EXISTS OVER NORTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL AND ADJOINING ODISHA – WEST BENGAL COASTS. BROKEN LOW OR MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTION OVER NORTH BAY OF BENGAL AND ADJOINING GANGETIC WESTBENGAL AND BANGLADESH COASTS  IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER THE AREA.  BROKEN LOW OR MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION OVER REST OF BAY OF BENGAL SOUTH OF LATITUDE 18.0°NORTH. BROKEN LOW OR MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO  INTENSE CONVECTION OVER  ANDAMAN SEA, GULF OF MARTBAN AND TENASSERIM COAST. PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS DURING NEXT 72 HRS:  LOW

JTWC稍早評級
AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 19.8N 87.3E,
APPROXIMATELY 170 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION WITH INTENSIVE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. A 060322Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A 10
TO 15 KNOT CIRCULATION WITH STRONG GALE FORCE WINDS WELL SOUTH OF
THE CIRCULATION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS
LOCATED IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
OFFSET BY WESTWARD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.





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