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91S 風季前期系統 欲振乏力

簽到天數: 588 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

2014-9-26 14:57 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 t02436 於 2014-9-30 13:48 編輯

基本資料   
編號    :91 S
擾動編號日期2014 09 26 14  時
消散日期  :
2014 0930 08  時


91S.INVEST-15kts-1010mb-7.8S-66.7E



本來美國錯誤編 91P,稍早已修正。

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簽到天數: 588 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

Meow|2014-9-26 21:34 | 顯示全部樓層
南半球的 RSMC 標準好嚴格,只有一側 30 節也不能升格。

East of 62E, an area of moderate fluctuating convective activity is extending southwards down of 12S.

To the West of this area, a tropical disturbance is centred at 1100Z near 7.5S/65.5E and moving West-North-Westward at 14 kt. MSLP is estimated at 1006 hPa. Maximum winds are estimated at 15/20 kt reaching up 30 kt, in the southern area.

Suffering from moderate North-Easterly vertical windshear, potential of development likes limited. European NWP model (IFS) suggests that this low level clockwise circulation should maintain and move Westwards within the next 3 days.

Development of a tropical depression is low for the next 5 days.
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簽到天數: 588 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

Meow|2014-9-26 21:40 | 顯示全部樓層
南半球本年度第一次的 Low 評級,當然 JTWC 對印度洋和南太平洋用的標準比較嚴格。



AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.6S 65.5E,
APPROXIMATELY 992 NM NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OVER A PARTIALLY-
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 260929Z NOAA-19
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY WRAPPING INTO THE DEFINED LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

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