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94W 發展後繼無力

簽到天數: 588 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

2014-10-15 02:54 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 Meow 於 2014-10-18 00:29 編輯

基本資料   
編號    :94W
擾動編號日期:2014 10 15 02
消散日期  :2014 10 17 22

94W.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.13.9N.165.5E

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快瓦解了~  發表於 2014-10-17 20:36
好遙遠喔不過看起來結構還不是很差但也不是很好,它仍有持續發展的空就不知道大氣環境能支持多久。  發表於 2014-10-15 19:29
注意兩三天了.... 終於編號了  發表於 2014-10-15 06:57
這隻未來成颱機率似乎一般一般。  發表於 2014-10-15 04:08

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參與人數 3水氣能量 +40 收起 理由
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簽到天數: 1653 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

ahdeeh|2014-10-15 09:08 | 顯示全部樓層
己經 UPGRADED TO MEDIUM
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簽到天數: 2760 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2014-10-15 09:43 | 顯示全部樓層
補Low報文
AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.5N 165.5E,
APPROXIMATELY 320 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF KWAJALEIN. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME CONSOLIDATION OF
THIS SYSTEM, WHICH IS CONFIRMED BY MICROWAVE IMAGERY, SPECIFICALLY
A 141847Z SSMIS PASS. THE MAJORITY OF THE DEEP CONVECTION CAN BE
SEEN ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM, CONSISTENT WITH AN
EARLIER ASCAT PASS, THE OVERALL CONVECTION HAS IMPROVED OVER THE
LAST 6 HOURS. OVERALL UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL WITH SOME
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET BY 20-30 KNOTS OF WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. BOTH GFS AND NAVGEM HAVE SOME MODEL DEVELOPMENT, WITH GFS
BEING THE MORE AGGRESSIVE OF THE TWO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

00Z升Medium
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.5N
165.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 164.7E, APPROXIMATELY 330 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF KWAJALEIN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DIPICTS
IMPROVED CENTRAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A CONSOLIDATING LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 142211Z METOP-B MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS
BROKEN CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY WRAPPING INTO
THE CENTER. ADDITIONALLY, A 142212Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A 15 TO 20 KNOT
CIRCULATION WITH 25 KNOT WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY AND
WEAKER 05 TO 10 KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR OFFSET BY GOOD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO PERSISTENT CONVECTION AND IMPROVED
ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.







風場掃出25KT

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