開啟輔助訪問
 找回密碼
 立即加入

93S 前景未有起色

簽到天數: 588 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

2014-10-17 21:43 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 Meow 於 2014-10-23 16:19 編輯

基本資料   
編號    :93S
擾動編號日期:2014 10 17 20
消散日期  :2014 10 23 14

93S.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.4.0S.82.0E

本帖子中包含更多資源

您需要 登錄 才可以下載或查看,沒有帳號?立即加入

x

評分

參與人數 1水氣能量 +20 收起 理由
ben811018 + 20 贊一個!

查看全部評分

簽到天數: 588 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

Meow|2014-10-20 04:12 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 發布評級為 Low。

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 3.3S 87.9E,
APPROXIMATELY 748 NM NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH AN ILL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A
191615Z METOP-B MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE BULK OF THE DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT WRAPPING TOWARDS
THE CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS
LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE 10 TO 20 KNOT
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
ADDITIONALLY, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.



MFR 認為離赤道很近。

Low East of the NET :

The low level circulation is broad and bad defined and is approximately centred near 1.7S/87.0E.
MSLP is estimated at 1008 hPa with winds at about 10/15 kt locally up 15/20 kt in the southern
semi-circle.

Associated convective activity is scattered and fluctuating but locally strong. It extends north of 8S
and east of 80E. In relationship with a north-easterly windshear and its position too close to the
equator, potential of development likes very limited.

European NWP model (IFS) suggests that this low level clockwise circulation will move slowly
southwards, without developing significantly.

本帖子中包含更多資源

您需要 登錄 才可以下載或查看,沒有帳號?立即加入

x
回復

使用道具 舉報

快速回覆
您需要登錄後才可以回帖 登錄 | 立即加入

本版積分規則

Meow

    主題

    帖子

    27萬

    積分

    11級[狂風Violent storm]

    Rank: 11Rank: 11Rank: 11Rank: 11

11級[狂風Violent storm]

發訊息

本平台僅供學術討論之用,預報應以氣象局為準

威普網站虛擬主機贊助公司

臺灣第一個天氣類型社群平台 即時天氣資訊、精準颱風動態

線上客服
FB傳送訊息
廣告行銷
精準行銷 物超所值
官方粉專
發佈 快速回復 返回頂部 返回列表