JTWC 發布評級為 Low。|
AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 3.3S 87.9E,
APPROXIMATELY 748 NM NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH AN ILL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A
191615Z METOP-B MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE BULK OF THE DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT WRAPPING TOWARDS
THE CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS
LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE 10 TO 20 KNOT
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
ADDITIONALLY, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
Low East of the NET :
The low level circulation is broad and bad defined and is approximately centred near 1.7S/87.0E.
MSLP is estimated at 1008 hPa with winds at about 10/15 kt locally up 15/20 kt in the southern
Associated convective activity is scattered and fluctuating but locally strong. It extends north of 8S
and east of 80E. In relationship with a north-easterly windshear and its position too close to the
equator, potential of development likes very limited.
European NWP model (IFS) suggests that this low level clockwise circulation will move slowly
southwards, without developing significantly.
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