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99S(01U) 對流消散發展添變數

簽到天數: 498 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

2014-11-28 16:22 來自手機 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 t02436 於 2014-12-6 00:13 編輯

基本資料   
編號    :98 S→
99 S ( 01 U )
擾動編號日期:2014 11 28 16

                            2014 11 30 18
消散日期  :2014 12 05 22


98S.INVEST.15kts.1000mb.5.3S.90E



99S.INVEST.20kts.1007mb.11S.87.5E



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參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 收起 理由
abcdefg60317 + 15 贊一個!

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簽到天數: 2735 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2014-11-30 21:24 | 顯示全部樓層
兩小時前重編99S,使用原帖繼續討論 不另開新帖
99S.INVEST.20kts.1007mb.11S.87.5E  



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簽到天數: 588 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

Meow|2014-12-4 10:20 | 顯示全部樓層
澳大利亞海域今年度第一個熱帶低壓 01U 形成,預估今晚命名 Kate。



IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0111 UTC 04/12/2014
Name: Tropical Low  
Identifier: 01U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 14.5S
Longitude: 92.0E
Location Accuracy: within 40 nm [75 km]
Movement Towards: east southeast [117 deg]
Speed of Movement: 9 knots [16 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1000 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 64-knot winds:   
Radius of Maximum Winds:   
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.5/D0.5/24HRS STT:0.0/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 80 nm [150 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  04/0600: 14.9S  92.7E:     050 [095]:  035  [065]:  996
+12:  04/1200: 15.4S  93.4E:     060 [110]:  035  [065]:  996
+18:  04/1800: 15.8S  94.0E:     070 [130]:  035  [065]:  996
+24:  05/0000: 16.3S  94.5E:     080 [150]:  030  [055]:  999
+36:  05/1200: 17.2S  94.7E:     100 [180]:  030  [055]:  998
+48:  06/0000: 19.0S  94.4E:     125 [230]:  030  [055]: 1000
+60:  06/1200: 20.0S  94.0E:     165 [305]:  025  [045]: 1001
+72:  07/0000: 20.3S  93.3E:     200 [370]:  025  [045]: 1001
+96:  08/0000: 21.0S  91.6E:     230 [425]:  025  [045]: 1001
+120: 09/0000: 21.3S  89.8E:     290 [535]:  025  [045]: 1001
REMARKS:
The system was located using IR and microwave imagery but with no clear
signature, the position is moderately uncertain.

Latest Dvorak is weighted towards MET and PAT. A curved band is not evident and
a shear pattern has been used. With an uncertain position, the DT from the shear
pattern is also treated as uncertain. MET, PAT and thus CI are all 2.0.

ADT is giving an FT of 3.0 but using a CDO pattern type and thus weighted down.
CIRA AMSU is 35 knots 1 minute mean for the last two NOAA19 passes. Intensity at
18UTC was 30 knots and based on the cloud signature, there hasn't been
significant weakening or strengthening. Current intensity is thus set to 30
knots.

1800UTC CIMMS shear was about 10 knots with stronger shear to the south
associated with an upper trough. This, combined with some dry air wrapping into
the system [TPW animation] should limit development and then weaken the system
on Friday. Cooler SSTs below 26 degrees should only reached [on the forecast
track] early Saturday. System is still forecast to reach tropical cyclone
intensity by 06UTC, maintain 35 knots until 18Z tonight then weaken.

Gales may persist on the southern side until later Friday due to a ridge of high
pressure to the south. Latest models indicate this is becoming less likely.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 04/0700 UTC by Perth TCWC.

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