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05F (96P) 螺旋隱現

簽到天數: 2725 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

2014-12-23 13:58 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 t02436 於 2014-12-29 20:05 編輯

  熱帶低壓  
編號 05 F ( 96 P )
名稱 :

基本資料   
擾動編號日期:2014 12 23 13
消散日期  :2014 12 29 17
登陸地點    


  巔峰時期資料  
斐濟氣象局 (FMS) :  30  kt
美國海軍 (JTWC) : 25  kt
海平面最低氣壓   : 1001 百帕

  討論帖圖片  
96P.INVEST.15kts.1007mb.13.3S.177.3W


以上資料來自:FMS、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

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簽到天數: 2725 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2014-12-24 20:10 | 顯示全部樓層
FMS在今天早上編號05F
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 05F CENTER [1004HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 12.6S 176.2W
AT 232100UTC. TD05F SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON GOES VIS
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 29 DEGRESS CELCIUS.
CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTANT IN THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE SYSTEM LIES
UNDER AN UPPER DIFFULENT REGION IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 700HPA.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT EASTWARDS WITH
SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.
POTENTION FOR TD05F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24
TO 48 HOURS IS  LOW.
NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.


TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 05F CENTER [1004HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 12.0S 175.9W
AT 240600UTC. TD05F SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 29 DEGRESS CELCIUS.

CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTANT IN THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE SYSTEM LIES
UNDER AN UPPER DIFFULENT REGION IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 700HPA.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT EASTWARDS WITH
SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTION FOR TD05F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24
TO 48 HOURS IS  LOW.



JTWC維持Medium

(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.6S
177.3W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.6S 176.7W, APPROXIMATELY 370 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING AND DISORGANIZED CONVECTIVE BANDING. A
240332Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A FAIRLY DEFINED LLCC WITH AN
OVERALL POOR CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AS THE BANDING FEATURES REMAIN
SHALLOW. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAIR
OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

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