95W 對流消長

t02436 · 2015-2-11 14:53

本帖最後由 t02436 於 2015-2-14 21:34 編輯

基本資料
編號　　　　：95 W
擾動編號日期：2015 年 02 月 11 日 14 時
消散日期　　：2015 年 02 月 14 日 20 時

95W.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.5.5N.151.5E

krichard2011 · 2015-2-11 15:06

本帖最後由 krichard2011 於 2015-2-11 15:09 編輯

好吧... 剛剛正要發的說 = = ~~(被早了一分鐘只好發別的了 ><~~
我也很早就在關注這個系統了
CWB也把這個雲團標為低壓區了渦度也泛澄
GFS似乎看好這系統的發展

t02436 · 2015-2-12 09:58

JTWC評級Low

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.9N 148.9E,
APPROXIMATELY 500 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SHALLOW, FRAGMENTED FORMATIVE
BANDS WRAPPING INTO A BROAD AND ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYTEM IS SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS
IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOT) SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR THAT IS OFFSET BY GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.