96W 對流消長

t02436 · 2015-5-17 14:49

本帖最後由 t02436 於 2015-5-20 19:16 編輯

基本資料
編號　　　　：96 W
擾動編號日期：2015 年 05 月 17 日 14 時
消散日期　　：2015 年 05 月 20 日 16 時

96W.INVEST.15kts-NAmb-7.0N-164.9E

t02436 · 2015-5-18 14:22

JTWC評級Low

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.6N 161.6E,
APPROXIMATELY 200 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF POHNPEI, FSM. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PERSISTENT FLARING CONVECTION
OVER A WEAK AND PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS); HOWEVER, THE VWS IS
OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW THAT IS ENHANCING THE ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION. NUMERIC WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS DO NOT SIGNIFICANTLY
DEVELOP THIS SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS AND ARE CONSISTENT WITH A 172308Z SCATTEROMETRY PASS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

GFS暫時無明顯反應

toby · 2015-5-18 22:24

白海豚後有不少熱帶擾動都是消消長長，像94w與95w，JTWC評級了以後撤編，這個熱帶擾動96w看來又會走上一樣的道路......:'(

t02436 · 2015-5-19 18:34

中心周圍風切有增強趨勢
對流較昨日大幅衰減

JTWC 06Z取消評級

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.6N
161.6E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.