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02E.Beatriz 登陸墨西哥南部

簽到天數: 474 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

2017-5-30 02:01 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 s6815711 於 2017-6-6 19:02 編輯

  熱帶風暴  
編號:02 E
名稱:Beatriz

  基本資料  
  
擾動編號日期:2017 05 30 00
命名日期  :2017 06 02 02
撤編日期  :2017 06 05 12
登陸地點  :墨西哥

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速 :40  kt ( TS )
海平面最低氣壓 :1002 百帕

  過去路徑圖  

  擾動編號資料  

91E-INVEST-20kts-1010mb-11.5N-99.2W

20170529.1730.goes13.x.vis1km_high.91EINVEST.20kts-1010mb-115N-992W.100pc.jpg
NHC : 10%
1. A large low pressure system is located a few hundred miles south
of Acapulco, Mexico.  Cloudiness and showers have become a little
better organized since yesterday, and gradual development of this
disturbance is possible during the next several days while it
drifts generally northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

two_pac_2d1.png

以上資料來自:NHC、颱風論壇整理製作

評分

參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 收起 理由
jwpk9899 + 15

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簽到天數: 474 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

劉瑞益@FB|2017-5-31 07:17 | 顯示全部樓層
NHC 展望提升50%
1. Satellite imagery this morning indicates that shower activity
associated with a low pressure area centered about 275 miles
southeast of Acapulco, Mexico, has become better organized.
Conditions appear favorable for additional development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form during the next few days
as the system drifts northward toward the coast of Mexico.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rains should spread over
the coast of southeastern and southern Mexico during the next
several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.


two_pac_2d1 (1).png 91E_gefs_latest.png 91E_intensity_latest.png



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[LV.7]常住居民III

W環|2017-5-31 08:35 | 顯示全部樓層
NHC 展望提升70%

two_pac_2d0.png



91E_intensity_latest.png



91E_tracks_latest.png

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue May 30 2017

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area
located about 275 miles southeast of Acapulco, Mexico, continue
to show some signs of organization.  Environmental conditions are
expected to remain conducive for additional development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form in a day or two while the low
drifts northward toward the coast of Mexico. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rains are expected to spread over the
coast of southeastern and southern Mexico during the next several
days. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Brown

點評

目前強度25kts.1007hpa,最高強度暫時上望45kts.988hpa,評級very high  發表於 2017-5-31 10:17
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t02436|2017-6-1 01:06 | 顯示全部樓層
15Z升格02E,看好命名。
000
WTPZ42 KNHC 311445
TCDEP2

Tropical Depression Two-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022017
1000 AM CDT Wed May 31 2017

The low pressure area located to the southeast of Acapulco, Mexico,
has developed multiple bands of deep convection, and various
satellite data suggest the system has a well-defined circulation.
Based on these, the system is designated as Tropical Depression
Two-E.  The initial intensity of 25 kt is based on current
satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB along with earlier
scatterometer data.

The initial motion is 035/3.  A mid- to upper-level trough seen in
water vapor imagery over northern Mexico is expected to steer the
cyclone slowly northeastward for the next 36 h or so.  After
that, there is significant divergence in the track guidance.  The
GFS, Canadian, and HWRF models move the cyclone inland over
southeastern Mexico in 48-60 h, while the ECMWF and UKMET show the
system stalling over the Pacific as a weak mid-level ridge builds
to the north.  The latter part of the track forecast somewhat
splits the difference between these two solutions, showing the
cyclone remaining over the Pacific but closer to the coast of
Mexico than forecast by the ECMWF and UKMET.

The depression is in an environment of 10-15 kt of southerly
vertical wind shear, and the large-scale models suggests that this
condition should persist for the next 36-48 h.  After that, while
the shear may decrease the cyclone is likely to be close enough to
the mountains of southern Mexico to inhibit development.  The
intensity forecast, which lies near the upper edge of the intensity
guidance, calls for slow strengthening for the first 48 h followed
by little change in strength through the remainder of the forecast
period.

The forecast track, intensity, and wind radii require a Tropical
Storm Watch for a portion of the coast of Mexico at this time.
However, heavy rains and freshwater flooding are likely to be the
biggest threats from this system even if it makes landfall as a
tropical storm.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  31/1500Z 13.9N  97.8W   25 KT  30 MPH
12H  01/0000Z 14.2N  97.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
24H  01/1200Z 14.6N  97.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
36H  02/0000Z 14.9N  97.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
48H  02/1200Z 15.1N  96.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
72H  03/1200Z 15.5N  96.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
96H  04/1200Z 15.5N  97.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  05/1200Z 15.5N  98.0W   50 KT  60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

145135_5day_cone_with_line.png

20170531.1318.f18.91pct91h91v.91E.INVEST.25kts.1007mb.13.8N.97.9W.095pc.jpg

rbtop-animated.gif
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簽到天數: 173 天

[LV.7]常住居民III

W環|2017-6-1 08:03 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 W環 於 2017-6-1 08:04 編輯

東北太平洋的東風波一隻,
有一些水氣從大西洋跨來,
相信有些幫助整合及發展,
暫時看會移向墨西哥一帶。

image.gif

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簽到天數: 474 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

劉瑞益@FB|2017-6-1 12:53 | 顯示全部樓層
NHC 第3報預測路徑大改變 24H後直撲墨西哥南部
000
WTPZ42 KNHC 010238
TCDEP2

Tropical Depression Two-E Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022017
1000 PM CDT Wed May 31 2017

Geostationary and microwave satellite imagery suggest that the
low-level circulation has become more symmetric and that the
convective organization has improved somewhat since the previous
advisory.  Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB
remain below tropical storm strength, so the initial intensity is
held at 30 kt.

Center fixes from recent microwave images show that the depression
is moving slightly faster than before or 045/5 kt.  The cyclone is
expected to continue moving northeastward ahead of a mid- to
upper-level trough over northern Mexico. The 18z runs of the GFS
and HWRF have continued the trend of a faster northeastward motion
toward the coast of southeastern Mexico, and the NHC forecast has
followed suit.  The new NHC track brings the center of the tropical
cyclone onshore within 24 hours, and shows a continued north-
northeastward motion until dissipation over southern Mexico in 48
hours, or sooner.  It should be noted that ECMWF and GFS bring
moisture and the mid-level center northward over the Gulf of Mexico
late this week, but the low-level center is expected to dissipate
over the mountainous terrain of southern Mexico.

The depression is over warm water and within an environment of
light to moderate shear.  These conditions could allow for some
strengthening and the depression is forecast to become a
tropical storm before it reaches the coast of southern Mexico on
Thursday. After landfall, steady weakening is predicted and the
cyclone is now forecast to become a remnant low in 36 to 48 hours,
and dissipate shortly thereafter.

Heavy rains, flash flooding, and mudslides are likely to be the
biggest threat from this system even if it makes landfall as a
tropical storm.  The new forecast has required the issuance of a
Tropical Storm Warning for a portion of the coast of southeastern
Mexico.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/0300Z 14.5N  97.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  01/1200Z 15.1N  96.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  02/0000Z 16.2N  96.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
36H  02/1200Z 17.2N  95.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H  03/0000Z 18.0N  95.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  04/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown
024710_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png rgb-animated (3).gif rbtop-animated (9).gif

點評

仍有機會命名與進入大西洋,強度預估35kts.1000hpa  發表於 2017-6-1 16:23
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簽到天數: 173 天

[LV.7]常住居民III

W環|2017-6-2 08:53 | 顯示全部樓層
悄悄地被NHC命名
image.png


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點評

早已消散殆盡,找不到了  發表於 2017-6-4 22:56
強度20kts.1007hpa,評級low  發表於 2017-6-2 23:32
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