Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Friday 13 April 2018
for the period until midnight EST Monday 16 April 2018.
Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:
Nil.
Potential Cyclones:
The surface circulation of ex-tropical cyclone Iris has continued to weaken in the far northern Coral Sea near Papua New Guinea. It is now rated a very low chance of redeveloping into a tropical cyclone.
There are no other significant systems in the Coral Sea and none are expected to develop during the next three days.
Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Saturday:
Very low
Sunday:
Very low
Monday:
Very low
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (RMNTS 17P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
14.5S 154.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.5S 153.6E, APPROXIMATELY 275 NM
NORTHEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS RENEWED FLARING CONVECTION DIRECTLY OVER A
DEFINED LLCC. RMNTS 17P IS EXPERIENCING MODERATE TO HIGH (15-25KTS)
VWS WITH STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT AIDED BY A POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE WARM (27-29C) AND ARE
CONDUCIVE TO DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING IMPROVED THOUGH
STILL WEAK AGREEMENT ON RMNTS 17P TURNING SOUTHWESTWARD AND RE-
DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE UPGRADE
IN STORM STATUS IS BASED ON THE IMPROVED MODEL AGREEMENT, INCREASED
SURFACE WINDS, AND IMPROVED STORM STRUCTURE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
提升卡
千斤頂
