t02436

NHC升格潛在熱帶氣旋06L，暫時上望65節。

882
WTNT41 KNHC 301444
TCDAT1

Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018
1100 AM AST Thu Aug 30 2018

The area of low pressure that moved off the coast of Africa has
continued to become better organized, and is producing a large
area of disturbed weather with gusty winds, but currently lacks a
well-defined center.  Environmental conditions are favorable for
additional development, and a tropical depression or a tropical
storm could form an any time today or Friday.  Given the high
chances that this system could bring tropical storm conditions to a
portion of the southern Cabo Verde Islands, advisories have been
initiated on Potential Tropical Cyclone Six.  Most of the intensity
guidance calls for strengthening and so does the NHC forecast.

The system is embedded within the easterly trades and this flow
pattern will steer the disturbance toward the west or west-
northwest during the next few days.  By the end of the forecast
period, a turn toward the northwest should begin as the system
reaches a weakness in the subtropical high.  This is consistent with
the output of the global models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/1500Z 12.9N  18.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H  31/0000Z 13.2N  20.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H  31/1200Z 13.5N  22.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
36H  01/0000Z 14.0N  24.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
48H  01/1200Z 15.0N  27.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
72H  02/1200Z 16.5N  33.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
96H  03/1200Z 18.5N  38.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  04/1200Z 20.0N  42.0W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

周子堯@FB

JTWC:TCFA

WTNT21 KNGU 300600
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.9N 17.0W TO 13.0N 19.9W
WITHIN THE NEXT 00 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
SURFACE WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 300600Z INDICATES THAT A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AN
ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 17.0W. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS
LOCATED ABOUT 413 MILES EAST OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CONTINUE TO BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT AND THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL
CYCLONE TODAY OR TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AND
TOWARD THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS.