05A.Luban 逐漸增強趨向阿拉伯半島

霧峰追風者 · 2018-10-4 11:58

  強烈氣旋風暴
編號：ARB 04 ( 05 A )
名稱：Luban

  基本資料
擾動編號日期：2018 年 10 月 04 日 11 時
JTWC升格日期:2018 年 10 月 08 日 08 時
命名日期　　：2018 年 10 月 08 日 10 時
撤編日期　　：2018 年 10 月 00 日 00 時
登陸地點　　：暫無

  巔峰時期資料
近中心最強風速
印度氣象局 ( IMD )：55 kt
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC)：55 kts ( TS )
海平面最低氣壓：990 百帕

  過去路徑圖
無

  擾動編號資料
99A.INVEST.15kts-NAmb-6.3N-70.2E
20181004.0320.himawari-8.ir.99A.INVEST.15kts.NAmb.6.3N.70.2E.100pc.jpg

20181004.0320.himawari-8.ir.99A.INVEST.15kts.NAmb.6.3N.70.2E.100pc.jpg

以上資料來自：IMD、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

周子堯@FB · 2018-10-13 12:00

本帖最後由周子堯@FB 於 2018-10-13 12:07 編輯

補些第一次巔峰時的資料~巔峰75kt，達一級颶風

WTIO31 PGTW 100900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 14.2N 58.9E
   MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
   POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
   POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2N 58.9E
---

周子堯@FB · 2018-10-13 11:48

本帖最後由周子堯@FB 於 2018-10-13 11:58 編輯

海溫偏低和乾空氣影響，JTWC預計二巔風速達60kt。
預估未來趨向葉門南岸。

CYCLONE (LUBAN)
14.8N/56.0E
INTENSITY T2.5

indian_1539405144.pdf (669.39 KB, 下載次數: 0)

20181013.0300.msg-4.ir.05A.LUBAN.40kts.999mb.14.6N.55.7E.100pc.jpg

t02436 · 2018-10-10 01:35

12Z兩大機構都評價55節。
JTWC上望C1，IMD上望VSCS。

20181009.1630.msg-4.ircolor.05A.LUBAN.55kts.982mb.13.3N.60.3E.100pc.jpg

20181009.1125.f16.91pct91h91v.05A.LUBAN.55kts.982mb.13.2N.60.1E.075pc.jpg

霧峰追風者 · 2018-10-8 12:45

JTWC 00Z升格熱帶風暴05A，強度上望颶風，趨向阿拉伯半島。

20181008.0300.msg1.ir.BD.05AFIVE.35kts-996mb.jpg

霧峰追風者 · 2018-10-8 12:34

IMD 稍早命名"Luban"

TC ADVISORY TCAC: NEW DELHI
DTG: 20181008/0000Z
TC: LUBAN
NR: 3
PSN: N1218 E06224
MOV: WNW06KT
C: 998HPA
MAX WIND: 35KT
FCST PSN+06HR: 08/0600Z N1230 E06148
FCST MAX WIND+06HR: 40KT
FCST PSN+12HR: 08/1200Z N1248 E06112
FCST MAX WIND+12HR: 45KT
FCST PSN+18HR: 08/1800Z N1306 E06036
FCST MAX WIND+18HR: 45KT
FCST PSN+24HR: 09/0000Z N1324 E06000
FCST MAX WIND+24HR: 50KT
RMK: NIL NXT
MSG: 20181008/0900Z
TOO: 080800 HRS IST

霧峰追風者 · 2018-10-7 13:07

IMD 已編號ARB 04，上望強氣旋風暴。

rsmc.pdf (111.83 KB, 下載次數: 2)

霧峰追風者 · 2018-10-7 00:26

JTWC 發布TCFA

WTIO21 PGTW 060830
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.8N 67.7E TO 13.2N 61.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 060600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.3N 66.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.3N
70.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 66.9E, APPROXIMATELY 822 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS FLARING CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC. THE
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS OVERALL FAVORABLE, WITH ADEQUATE UL
DIVERGENCE ENABLED BY FORMATIVE DUAL-CHANNEL OUTFLOW. VWS IS LOW-
MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) OVER THE SYSTEM CENTER WITH HIGHER VALUES TO
THE WEST. DESPITE THESE HIGHER SHEAR VALUES, VERTICAL ALIGNMENT
BETWEEN THE MID- AND LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS REMAINS GOOD. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM (27-29 CELSIUS) IN THE ARABIAN SEA
AND WILL SUPPORT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN SOLID
AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT TRACKS WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARDS
THE ARABIAN PENINSULA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
070830Z.//
NNNN