老農民版夜神月

  基本資料  
編號　　　　：16 L
擾動編號日期：2020 年 08 月 30 日 20 時
撤編日期　　：2020 年 09 月 04 日 23 時
99L INVEST 200830 1200 20.0N 40.0W ATL 15 NA


NHC稍後重新定強定位:99L INVEST 200830 1200 12.0N 62.5W ATL 25 1008


  NHC：20％

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave are
gradually moving westward away from the Lesser Antilles. Although
the disturbance remains disorganized at this time, some gradual
development of this system is possible during the next several days
while it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph across the Caribbean Sea.
Regardless of development, this system will continue to produce
gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall across portions of the
Windward and Leeward Islands this morning before diminishing this
afternoon.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

巔峰強度：65KT

老農民版夜神月

NHC03Z判定已成為殘餘低氣壓

000
WTNT41 KNHC 040240
TCDAT1

Remnants Of Nana Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162020
1000 PM CDT Thu Sep 03 2020

Satellite and surface data indicate that Nana's low-level
circulation has dissipated over the mountainous terrain of
southwestern Guatemala.  Therefore, this will be the final NHC
advisory on this system.  The mid-level remnants are expected to
emerge over the eastern Pacific waters near the Gulf of Tehuantepec
later tonight or early Friday.  The global models indicate that
strong upper-level northeasterly flow will prevent re-development
over the next couple of days.  However, this system could produce
locally heavy rainfall along portions of the southeastern and
southern coasts of Mexico over the weekend.  Additional information
on the remnants on Nana can be found in the eastern Pacific basin
Tropical Weather Outlook. This product can be found under AWIPS
header MIATWOEP, WMO header ABPZ20 KNHC, and on the web at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWOEP+shtml/


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/0300Z 15.6N  92.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
12H  04/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

霧峰追風者

稍早已殘餘已進入東太，NHC 展望10%。

16L NANA 200904 0000  15.8N   91.4W ATL    25  1007

1. The remnants of Atlantic basin Tropical Depression Nana are
expected to emerge over the eastern Pacific waters near the
Gulf of Tehuantepec late tonight or early Friday.  Unfavorable
upper-level winds are expected to inhibit significant development
through early next week while the system moves generally
west-northwestward, near or along the southern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

老農民版夜神月

Nana已於06Z登陸貝里斯貝里斯市附近,NHC在報文中暫不看好其跨洋進入東太平洋後的發展

457
WTNT41 KNHC 030844
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Nana Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162020
400 AM CDT Thu Sep 03 2020

Nana made landfall on the coast of Belize about 45 n mi south of
Belize City around 0600 UTC today.  It is estimated to be located
inland and weakening over the southern part of that country with
maximum winds of no more than 60 kt at this time.  The small
circulation will be moving over mountainous terrain today and
tonight, so rapid weakening is likely.  The official forecast is
similar to the Decay-SHIPS intensity guidance, and calls for the
system to degenerate into a remnant low by Friday.  Although the
remnants of Nana are forecast to move into the east Pacific in about
36 hours, the model guidance is in good agreement that conditions
in that area will not be conducive for regeneration.

The tropical cyclone continues to move a little south of west, or
around 255/13 kt.  A low- to mid-level ridge to the north of Nana
should keep it moving on a west to west-southwestward track during
the next day or so.  The NHC track forecast is similar to the
previous one, and on the northern side of the guidance envelope.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical storm conditions will continue within the warning areas
in Belize, Mexico, Guatemala, and the Bay Islands of Honduras this
morning.  Storm surge along the Belize coast will subside this
morning as Nana moves farther inland.

2. Heavy rainfall with isolated maximum amounts as high as 8 to 12
inches could result in flash flooding in Belize, Guatemala, and
portions of southeastern Mexico and the Yucatan Peninsula.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/0900Z 16.7N  88.8W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND
12H  03/1800Z 16.4N  90.7W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
24H  04/0600Z 15.8N  93.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
36H  04/1800Z 15.3N  95.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H  05/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

天篷大元帥

國家颶風中心：颶風
颶風警告在貝里斯海岸生效
原文：

000
WTNT41 KNHC 030252
TCDAT1

Hurricane Nana Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162020
1000 PM CDT Wed Sep 02 2020

After the center of Nana nearly became exposed during the late
afternoon, a new burst of convection developed near and to the
south of the center which has resulted in strengthening this
evening.  Very recently received data from an Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft has indicated that Nana has become a
hurricane.  The plane has measured a peak 700-mb flight-level
wind of 72 kt to the north of the center, and peak SFMR winds
of 62 kt earlier this evening.  These data support an initial
intensity of 65 kt, making Nana the fifth hurricane of the 2020
Atlantic basin hurricane season.  Since Nana should make landfall
along the coast of Belize within the next several hours, little
additional strengthening is expected before the center crosses the
coast.  Rapid weakening will occur after landfall, and the new 12
through 36 hour intensity forecast reflects this.  The low-level
center is likely to dissipate over mountainous terrain within 48
hours, if not sooner.

Nana is moving just south of due west at about 265/14 kt. A low- to
mid-level ridge to the north of Nana should keep it moving on a
west-southwestward motion during the next day or so.  The guidance
enveloped has shifted slightly southward and the new NHC track
forecast has been adjusted accordingly.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Hurricane conditions and a dangerous storm surge will spread
onshore along portions of the coast of Belize within the Hurricane
Warning area through early Thursday.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm
warning areas in Belize, the Bay Islands, Guatemala, and the
Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico through early Thursday.

3. Heavy rainfall with isolated maximum amounts as high as 8 to 12
inches could result in flash flooding in Belize, Guatemala, and
portions of southeastern Mexico and the Yucatan Peninsula.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/0300Z 17.0N  87.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
12H  03/1200Z 16.8N  89.2W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
24H  04/0000Z 16.4N  91.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
36H  04/1200Z 16.0N  93.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H  05/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

粗劣的機器翻譯：

000
WTNT41 KNHC 030252
TCDAT1

颶風娜娜討論號8
NWS國家颶風中心邁阿密FL AL162020
1000 PM CDT星期三2020年9月2
日下午晚些時候，

娜娜的中心幾乎暴露在外後，
南對流爆發了新的對流中心，今天
晚上得到了加強。最近從空軍預備隊
偵察機獲得的數據表明，娜娜已成為
颶風。這架飛機
在中心以北測得700 mb峰值的飛行高度為700 海裡，而今晚
早些時候的SFMR峰值為62 kt。這些數據支持初始
強度達65 kt，使娜娜成為2020年
大西洋盆地颶風季節的第五次颶風。由于娜娜將
在接下來的幾個小時內沿伯利茲海岸登陸，因此
在該中心越過
海岸之前，預計幾乎沒有其他的加強措施。登陸後將迅速減弱，新的12
至36小時強度預報反映了這一點。低層
中心很可能會在48
小時內消散在山區地形上，即使不是更早。

娜娜（Nana）以大約265/14 kt的速度向正西移動。
娜娜（Nana）北部的中低階山脊
在第二天左右應使其向西南偏西運動。指引
包圍狀態已稍微向南移動，新的NHC跟踪
預報也作了相應調整。

關鍵信息：

1.颶風狀況和危險的風暴潮將
在颶風
預警區域內的伯利茲海岸部分地區陸續蔓延至週四初。

2.
到星期四初
，預計在伯利茲，海灣群島，危地馬拉和墨西哥尤卡坦半島的熱帶風暴預警地區將出現熱帶風暴情況。

3.個別最大降雨量高達8至12
英寸的強降雨可能在伯利茲，危地馬拉以及
墨西哥東南部和尤卡坦半島的部分地區造成山洪氾濫。


預測位置和最大風

INIT 03 / 0300Z 17.0N 87.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 03 / 1200Z 16.8N 89.2W 50 KT 60 MPH ...
內陸24H 04 / 0000Z 16.4N 91.6W 30 KT 35 MPH ...
內陸36H 04 / 1200Z 16.0N 93.9W 20 KT 25 MPH ...後撤/後撤低
48H 05 / 0000Z ...已分發

$$
Forecaster Brown

霧峰追風者

NHC 展望提升10%。

1. The remnants of Atlantic basin Tropical Storm Nana could emerge
over the eastern Pacific waters near the Gulf of Tehuantepec on
Friday. Unfavorable upper-level winds are expected to limit
development through the weekend while the system moves generally
west-northwestward near the southern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

老農民版夜神月

即將約於12H後登陸貝里斯，
看好其殘餘進入東太的模式有所增加

000
WTNT41 KNHC 022036
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Nana Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162020
400 PM CDT Wed Sep 02 2020

Nana continues to feel the effects of about 15 kt of northerly
vertical shear, as the low-level center is located near the
northern edge of the main convective mass.  Data from the last Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Mission showed that the flight-level
winds at 850 mb were a little lower than earlier.  However,
incomplete SFMR data suggested surface winds near 50 kt, and the
aircraft reported that the central pressure is near 999 mb.  The
initial intensity is held at 50 kt, although this could be a little
generous.

The initial motion is westward or 270/13 kt.  A low- to mid-level
ridge to the north of the cyclone is forecast to keep steering Nana
toward the west, or maybe just south of west, for the remainder of
the cyclone's life.  The new forecast track, which again is changed
only slightly from the previous forecast, calls for the cyclone to
pass north of the Bay Islands this evening, then make landfall over
central or southern Belize in about 12-18 h.  

Nana is running out of time to strengthen before landfall, and
between that and the ongoing shear none of the intensity guidance
forecasts it to become a hurricane before landfall.  However, any
strong convective burst could spin up the cyclone, and since the
bursts have been frequent today the intensity forecast calls for
Nana to strengthen to near hurricane strength at landfall.  After
landfall, steady weakening is expected.  Several of the global
models now show the remnants of Nana emerging over the Gulf of
Tehuantepec in 48-60 h.  However, these models continue to forecast
dissipation even over water, so the forecast dissipation time is
unchanged since the previous advisory.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Nana could bring hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge
tonight to portions of the coast of Belize, and a hurricane warning
is in effect. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm
warning areas in Belize, the Bay Islands, Guatemala, and the
Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico by tonight.

3. Heavy rainfall with isolated maximum amounts as high as 8 to 12
inches could result in flash flooding in Belize, Guatemala, and
portions of southeastern Mexico and the Yucatan Peninsula.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/2100Z 17.0N  85.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
12H  03/0600Z 16.8N  87.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
24H  03/1800Z 16.6N  90.1W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
36H  04/0600Z 16.4N  92.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
48H  04/1800Z 16.2N  94.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H  05/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

老農民版夜神月

NHC於新報將Nana上望上調至C1下限65KT
其登陸後殘餘雲系可能進入東太平洋

000
WTNT41 KNHC 011656
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Nana Special Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162020
100 PM EDT Tue Sep 01 2020

An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating the
vigorous disturbance south of Jamaica this morning has found that
the system has a well-defined, closed circulation center. The
aircraft also measured 60 kt at 925 mb in the northeastern quadrant
and reliable SFMR surface winds of 45 kt. Based on these data, the
system has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Nana, the 14th named
tropical storm of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season.

The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 280/14 kt, No
significant changes were made to the previous track forecast. A
strong deep-layer to the north of the system is expected to build
slowly westward over the next few days, keeping the disturbance
moving in a general west-northwestward to westward direction through
48 hours, followed by a turn toward the west-southwest shortly
thereafter when the system will be inland over Central America. The
NHC official forecast track lies close to a blend of the simple
consensus models TVCN and GFEX, and the corrected-consensus model
HCCA.

Nana has developed a well-defined upper-level anticyclone, with
outflow gradually improving in all quadrants. Modest northeasterly
to easterly vertical wind shear is expected to gradually subside to
less than 10 kt by 48 hours, which should allow for at least some
slow but steady strengthening, given that sea-surface temperatures
(SST) will be 29.5-30.5 deg C along the track. Some dry air
intrusions might hinder development for the next 24 hours or so, but
the global and regional models still indicate that the atmosphere
will moisten thereafter, and continue to moisten right up until
landfall. Based on the higher initial intensity and the mostly
favorable environmental conditions expected after 24 hours, the peak
forecast intensity has been increased to 65 kt at 48 hours, just
prior to landfall.

Due to the Nana's expected proximity to Belize in 48 hours, a
Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for that country. Additional
watches and possible warnings will likely be required later today
for Guatemala and the southern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical Storm Nana is now forecast to be a hurricane as it
approaches the coast, and interests in Honduras, Guatemala,
Belize and Yucatan should closely monitor the progress of this
storm.  Strong winds, dangerous storm surge and very heavy rainfall
causing flash flooding are becoming more likely from Nana.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/1700Z 16.6N  77.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
12H  02/0000Z 16.6N  79.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
24H  02/1200Z 16.7N  82.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
36H  03/0000Z 16.8N  85.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
48H  03/1200Z 16.8N  87.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
60H  04/0000Z 16.5N  89.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
72H  04/1200Z 15.7N  91.7W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart