t02436

評級Low

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.8S 47.2E,
APPROXIMATELY 550 NM NORTH OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS FORMATIVE BANDS HAVE
BEGUN TO WRAP INTO A BROAD AND ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH THE DEEPER CELLS OF CONVECTION FLARING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. THIS IS DEPICTED ON A 261634Z SSMI-S MICROWAVE
IMAGE AS A CURVED LINE OF FRAGMENTED ELEMENTS WITH HIGH-REFLECTIVITY
CORES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS DIRECTLY BENEATH
A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
ALSO EVIDENT ON THE MSI LOOP, THERE IS A STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
THAT IS ENHANCING THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA AND ALONG THE SYSTEMS PROJECTED TRACK (28-
30 DEGREES CELSIUS) ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. BASED ON THE
IMPROVED ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, TEMPERED ONLY BY THE ABSENCE OF A
WELL-DEFINED LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.