krichard2011

看起來 Pali 又得到了一項新的成就
中太平洋史上最早的命名颶風 1992年 Ekeka 以來最早

1. CP, 01, 2016011118,   , BEST,   0,  83N, 1726W,  65,  986, HU,  34, NEQ,  110,  110,  110,  100, 1008,  175,  20,  65,  20,   C,   0,    ,   0,   0,       PALI, D, 12, NEQ,  160,  140,  140,  150,
   
2. CP, 01, 2016011118,   , BEST,   0,  83N, 1726W,  65,  986, HU,  50, NEQ,   30,   30,   30,   30, 1008,  175,  20,  65,  20,   C,   0,    ,   0,   0,       PALI, D, 12, NEQ,  160,  140,  140,  150,
   
3. CP, 01, 2016011118,   , BEST,   0,  83N, 1726W,  65,  986, HU,  64, NEQ,   10,    0,    0,    0, 1008,  175,  20,  65,  20,   C,   0,    ,   0,   0,       PALI, D, 12, NEQ,  160,  140,  140,  150,
   
4. CP, 01, 2016011200,   , BEST,   0,  83N, 1720W,  75,  982, HU,  34, NEQ,  110,   90,   40,  100, 1008,  175,  10,   0,   0,   C,   0,    ,   0,   0,       PALI, D,
   
5. CP, 01, 2016011200,   , BEST,   0,  83N, 1720W,  75,  982, HU,  50, NEQ,   40,   30,   20,   30, 1008,  175,  10,   0,   0,   C,   0,    ,   0,   0,       PALI, D,
   
6. CP, 01, 2016011200,   , BEST,   0,  83N, 1720W,  75,  982, HU,  64, NEQ,   10,   10,    0,    0, 1008,  175,  10,   0,   0,   C,   0,    ,   0,   0,       PALI, D,

複製代碼

蜜露

目前疑似在卷眼的趨勢. 對流開始卷弱. GFS看好後期強度.

未來48小時路徑偏南行進.

blackcat

不得不提這個Pali
未來可能會偷溜進西太
而且還非常貼近赤道
不過在此之前強度都會保持在輕颱下限左右
最近型態有比較好一些

陳約禮@FB

WTPA21 PHFO 091442
TCMCP1

TROPICAL STORM PALI FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP012016
1500 UTC SAT JAN 09 2016

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR  8.1N 173.9W AT 09/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT   4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 120SE 120SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS..225NE 300SE 225SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR  8.1N 173.9W AT 09/1500Z
AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR  8.0N 173.7W

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z  8.1N 174.3W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  90SE  90SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z  8.1N 174.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z  8.1N 174.7W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z  8.0N 174.9W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z  7.5N 175.2W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z  5.9N 175.7W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z  4.0N 176.4W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF  8.1N 173.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER WROE

CPHC最新一報將Pali強度下調為45kt，並預測Pali將於1天後減弱為熱帶性低氣壓



目前高低層分離，中心嚴重裸露





EC認為未來再增強空間不大，預測Pali將以熱帶低壓或熱帶擾動的強度移往西太。

甜心

:o一般而言北太平洋海域1月份的熱帶擾動大多都是發生在我們西太這邊，其次就是東北太平洋海域但這次發生在中太平洋是非常罕見的。

開梅

前天在氣象局的全球衛星雲圖就發現這個龐大的存在，納悶日本氣象廳那邊怎麼沒有動靜，今天有了眉目了，原在在中太平洋

blackcat

已命名Pali
後期會不會跨洋很難說

t02436

CPHC初報上望45節，預計12小時內命名，短期內暫時沒有進入西太的可能

WTPA41 PHFO 071459
TCDCP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP012016
500 AM HST THU JAN 07 2016

THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY HAVE PERSISTED SUFFICIENTLY LONG TO CLASSIFY THE
SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS LOW-LATITUDE OUT-OF-SEASON SYSTEM
HAS TAPPED INTO SIGNIFICANT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR OF THE LOW-LEVEL
WINDS...WITH AN EL-NINO RELATED WESTERLY WIND BURST SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM...AND PREVAILING EASTERLY TRADE WINDS TO THE NORTH PROVIDING
THE LARGE SCALE CONDITIONS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 1.5/25 KT FROM PHFO/SAB TO
2.0/30 KT FROM PGTW...AND THE INTENSITY FOR THIS INITIAL ADVISORY IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KT.

THE CYCLONE IS IN AN AREA OF WEAK STEERING FLOW...HAS BEEN
DRIFTING GENERALLY NORTHWARD OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO...AND THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 350/04 KT. TRACK
GUIDANCE IS SPLIT INTO TWO FAIRLY DISTINCT CAMPS...WITH THE
DIFFERENCES MOST SIGNIFICANT AFTER 72 HOURS. A SLOW MOTION TOWARD
THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT TWO TO THREE
DAYS...TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE CENTERED TO THE
NORTHWEST. AFTER THIS TIME...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD EASTWARD
WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...BUT A TROUGH UNDERCUTTING THE
RIDGE IS WHERE MODEL DIFFERENCES ARISE. THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
TROUGH FIRST INDUCES A REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED...AND THEN AN EAST
TO SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION IN THE GFS/HWRF/GFDL/TVCN SOLUTIONS. THE
ECMWF/NAVGEM/CMC ON THE OTHER HAND DEPICT A WEAKER TROUGH...AND
MAINTAIN A MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS THE CYCLONE IS
STEERED BY THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES CLOSE
TO THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE AND TVCN CONSENSUS THROUGH 72
HOURS...AND THEN FAVORS THE SOLUTION OFFERED BY THE
GFS/HWRF/GFDL/TVCN...FORECASTING A TURN TOWARD THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS IVCN AND SHIPS GUIDANCE...
ANTICIPATING A RELATIVELY SMALL WINDOW FOR STRENGTHENING OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO...WITH LITTLE CHANGE UNTIL DAYS 4 AND 5. DESPITE THE
SEASON...SSTS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK ARE SUFFICIENTLY WARM TO
SUPPORT A STRONG TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE LIMITING FACTOR IS EXPECTED
TO BE INCREASING EASTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRENGTHENING
RIDGE TO THE NORTH...AND THE DEVELOPING TROUGH ALOFT IN WHICH THE
CYCLONE MAY BECOME EMBEDDED.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/1500Z  4.0N 171.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  08/0000Z  4.8N 171.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
24H  08/1200Z  5.7N 172.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
36H  09/0000Z  6.6N 172.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
48H  09/1200Z  7.0N 173.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
72H  10/1200Z  7.5N 173.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
96H  11/1200Z  7.5N 172.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  12/1200Z  7.0N 171.5W   35 KT  40 MPH

$$

FORECASTER BIRCHARD