blackcat

已命名Pali
後期會不會跨洋很難說

開梅

前天在氣象局的全球衛星雲圖就發現這個龐大的存在，納悶日本氣象廳那邊怎麼沒有動靜，今天有了眉目了，原在在中太平洋

甜心

:o一般而言北太平洋海域1月份的熱帶擾動大多都是發生在我們西太這邊，其次就是東北太平洋海域但這次發生在中太平洋是非常罕見的。

陳約禮@FB

WTPA21 PHFO 091442
TCMCP1

TROPICAL STORM PALI FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP012016
1500 UTC SAT JAN 09 2016

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR  8.1N 173.9W AT 09/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT   4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 120SE 120SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS..225NE 300SE 225SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR  8.1N 173.9W AT 09/1500Z
AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR  8.0N 173.7W

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z  8.1N 174.3W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  90SE  90SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z  8.1N 174.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z  8.1N 174.7W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z  8.0N 174.9W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z  7.5N 175.2W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z  5.9N 175.7W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z  4.0N 176.4W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF  8.1N 173.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER WROE

CPHC最新一報將Pali強度下調為45kt，並預測Pali將於1天後減弱為熱帶性低氣壓



目前高低層分離，中心嚴重裸露





EC認為未來再增強空間不大，預測Pali將以熱帶低壓或熱帶擾動的強度移往西太。

blackcat

不得不提這個Pali
未來可能會偷溜進西太
而且還非常貼近赤道
不過在此之前強度都會保持在輕颱下限左右
最近型態有比較好一些

蜜露

目前疑似在卷眼的趨勢. 對流開始卷弱. GFS看好後期強度.

未來48小時路徑偏南行進.

krichard2011

看起來 Pali 又得到了一項新的成就
中太平洋史上最早的命名颶風 1992年 Ekeka 以來最早

1. CP, 01, 2016011118,   , BEST,   0,  83N, 1726W,  65,  986, HU,  34, NEQ,  110,  110,  110,  100, 1008,  175,  20,  65,  20,   C,   0,    ,   0,   0,       PALI, D, 12, NEQ,  160,  140,  140,  150,
   
2. CP, 01, 2016011118,   , BEST,   0,  83N, 1726W,  65,  986, HU,  50, NEQ,   30,   30,   30,   30, 1008,  175,  20,  65,  20,   C,   0,    ,   0,   0,       PALI, D, 12, NEQ,  160,  140,  140,  150,
   
3. CP, 01, 2016011118,   , BEST,   0,  83N, 1726W,  65,  986, HU,  64, NEQ,   10,    0,    0,    0, 1008,  175,  20,  65,  20,   C,   0,    ,   0,   0,       PALI, D, 12, NEQ,  160,  140,  140,  150,
   
4. CP, 01, 2016011200,   , BEST,   0,  83N, 1720W,  75,  982, HU,  34, NEQ,  110,   90,   40,  100, 1008,  175,  10,   0,   0,   C,   0,    ,   0,   0,       PALI, D,
   
5. CP, 01, 2016011200,   , BEST,   0,  83N, 1720W,  75,  982, HU,  50, NEQ,   40,   30,   20,   30, 1008,  175,  10,   0,   0,   C,   0,    ,   0,   0,       PALI, D,
   
6. CP, 01, 2016011200,   , BEST,   0,  83N, 1720W,  75,  982, HU,  64, NEQ,   10,   10,    0,    0, 1008,  175,  10,   0,   0,   C,   0,    ,   0,   0,       PALI, D,

複製代碼

t02436

風眼轉出來了，03Z正報給出75節，Pali成為中太史上最早的颶風，預測五天後開始接近換日線

WTPA41 PHFO 120259
TCDCP1

HURRICANE PALI DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP012016
500 PM HST MON JAN 11 2016

IT IS RATHER SURREAL TO BE SAYING THIS IN JANUARY...BUT THE
SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF PALI HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE TODAY WITH
THE RAGGED EYE BECOMING BETTER DEFINED IN VISIBLE IMAGERY. MICROWAVE
IMAGERY HAS ALSO SHOWN THE EYEWALL BECOMING BETTER DEFINED.
SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM THE PARTICIPATING AGENCIES WERE
UNANIMOUS AT 4.5 AND THE UW-CIMSS ADT GAVE 5.1. THUS...NOT ONLY IS
PALI NOW A HURRICANE...BUT THE EARLIEST RECORDED HURRICANE IN A
CALENDAR YEAR IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS
HELD BY EKEKA IN JANUARY OF 1992. YET ANOTHER RECORD TO STACK ON THE
EVER-GROWING PILE OF RECENT RECORDS DUE IN LARGE PART TO THE ONGOING
STRONG EL NINO.

THE ESTIMATED MOTION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS IS 105/5. A
LARGE...STRONG MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE LOCATED BETWEEN WAKE ISLAND AND
THE MARIANA ISLANDS IS IN THE PROCESS OF BUILDING EASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC. THIS IS EXPECTED TO IMPART AN INCREASINGLY
SOUTHWARD MOTION ON THE HURRICANE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE DEEP
LAYER FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE STRONG RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN
TURNING THE HURRICANE BACK TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 24 AND 72
HOURS. A MORE TYPICAL WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE...AND LEANS TOWARD A BLEND OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS AND
THE HWRF IN THE FIRST 48 HOURS. THERE IS A FAIRLY LARGE SPREAD
IN THE GUIDANCE AFTER 72 HOURS OWING TO UNCERTAINTY OF WHEN A MORE
WESTWARD MOTION WILL BEGIN...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ROUGHLY
DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT
THE ECMWF IS EXHIBITING SOME UNUSUAL BEHAVIOR IN THE LATTER PORTION
OF THE FORECAST...AS IT TAKES THE CYCLONE SIGNIFICANTLY CLOSER TO
THE EQUATOR THAN MOST OTHER GUIDANCE.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS ALSO FAIRLY CHALLENGING. MODERATE WESTERLY
SHEAR OF AROUND 15 KNOTS DOES NOT SEEM TO BE IMPACTING PALI
MUCH...PERHAPS BECAUSE OF THE EASTERLY DRIFT IT HAS EXPERIENCED
TODAY. THE CYCLONE IS OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 28C...AND THE
WATER WILL INCREASE ALONG THE TRACK AS WELL. SOME OF THE MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE SHEAR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS
BEFORE EASING DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST. LITTLE
CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...
FOLLOWED BY A SLOW WEAKENING TREND AS THE SYSTEM TURNS BACK TOWARD
THE SHEAR VECTOR. ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING AFTER 72 HOURS...WITH WEAK SHEAR
AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...THE PROXIMITY OF PALI TO THE
EQUATOR MAY INHIBIT REINTENSIFICATION.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/0300Z  8.1N 171.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
12H  12/1200Z  7.5N 171.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
24H  13/0000Z  6.4N 171.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
36H  13/1200Z  5.3N 171.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
48H  14/0000Z  4.5N 172.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
72H  15/0000Z  3.2N 174.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
96H  16/0000Z  2.8N 176.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  17/0000Z  2.7N 178.6W   50 KT  60 MPH

$$
FORECASTER R BALLARD