B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
21.6N 89.2E, APPROXIMATELY 70 NM SOUTHEAST OF KOLKATA, INDIA.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE LLCC. A 091138Z NOAA-
18 89GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A COMPACT LLCC WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED CENTER. A 090418Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS 25
TO 30 KNOT WESTERLIES OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD
DIFFLUENCE AND LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DYNAMIC MODELS
INDICATE QUASI-STATIONARY TRACK MOTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, NEAR
THE COAST OF BANGLADESH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 995 MB. DUE TO THE POSITION STRADDLING THE
COAST OF BANGLADESH AND THE CONSOLIDATING LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
12Z直接評價30節
96B INVEST 160809 1200 21.6N 89.2E IO 30 995
IMD表示有機會在24小時之內加強為低壓
** WTIN20 DEMS 090751 ***
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 09.08.2016
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL
AND THE ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 72 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC OF
09TH AUGUST, 2016 BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 09TH AUGUST, 2016.
BAY OF BENGAL & ANDAMAN SEA:
A LOW PRESSURE AREA HAS FORMED OVER NORTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL IN EARLY
MORNING OF TODAY AND LAY AS A WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SAME
REGION AT 0300 UTC OF 9TH AUGUST, 2016. IT IS LIKELY TO CONCENTRATE
INTO A DEPRESSION DURING NEXT 24 HOURS. BROKEN LOW/MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH
EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION LIE OVER NORTH BAY OF
BENGAL.. SCATTERED LOW/MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO
INTENSE CONVECTION LIE OVER SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA ADJOINING SOUTHEAST BAY
OF BENGAL.
PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS OVER BAY OF BENGAL AND ANDAMAN SEA DURING
NEXT 72 HOURS:
24 HOURS MODERATE
24-48 HOURS HIGH
48-72 HOURS NIL
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