dom

BoM, MFR認為發展機會為低

DW10800

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:00 pm WST on Thursday 25 March 2021
for the period until midnight WST Sunday 28 March 2021.
Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:
Nil.
Potential Cyclones:

At 12am WST Thursday 25 March a tropical low (21U) was located near 11.6S 92.2E, about 510 kilometres to the west of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands. Recently it has been slow moving.
There is some uncertainty over the future movement of this system; it will most likely continue to be slow moving over the next day or two, before moving away to the west. However, some guidance has it drifting towards the southeast. While it's not expected to directly impact the Cocos (Keeling) Islands, shower and thunderstorm activity may increase if the southeast movement occurs, easing from Sunday.
Regardless of movement, there is only a Low chance of this system developing into a tropical cyclone.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Friday: Low
Saturday: Low
Sunday: Low

老農民版夜神月

對流有減弱的跡象，JTWC18Z分析Too Weak,評級則維持在Medium

TPXS10 PGTW 251809

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 95S (W OF COCOS ISLANDS)

B. 25/1715Z

C. 11.92S

D. 92.34E

E. FIVE/GOES-IO

F. N/A

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. THIS SYSTEM IS TOO WEAK TO CLASSIFY.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   25/1255Z  11.93S  92.27E  SSMS


   YOUNG

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.7S 91.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.9S 92.2E, APPROXIMATELY 273
NM WEST OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 251045Z SSMIS 91GHZ SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICT
MARGINAL LOWER LEVEL TURNING WITH TWO DISTINCT POCKETS OF DEEP
CONVECTION OBSCURING THE BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). 95S IS
CURRENTLY IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MINIMAL
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WARM (29 TO 28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES,
AND LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 95S WILL REMAIN QUASI-
STATIONARY WITH OVER THE NEXT 24HRS WITH NO INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

dom

JTWC降評low

     (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.7S 91.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.6S 91.3E, APPROXIMATELY 328
NM WEST OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 260005Z SSMIS 91GHZ SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICT LOWER
LEVEL BANDS WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS
OBSCURED BY FLARING CONVECTION. 95S IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MINIMAL POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WARM (29 TO 30
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT 95S WILL REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY AND DISSIPATE OVER
THE NEXT 72HRS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20
TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.

老農民版夜神月

縱使評級遭降為Low，JTWC仍持續在分析，03Z維持Too Weak

TPXS10 PGTW 260254

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 95S (W OF COCOS ISLAND)

B. 26/0215Z

C. 10.53S

D. 90.97E

E. FIVE/GOES-IO

F. N/A

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 49A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. THIS SYSTEM IS TOO WEAK TO
CLASSIFY.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


   YOUNG

dom

BoM, MFR不再支持其能有所發展

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:00 pm WST on Friday 26 March 2021
for the period until midnight WST Monday 29 March 2021.
Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:
Nil.
Potential Cyclones:

At 12pm Friday 26 March a tropical low (21U) was located near 10.7S 91.0E, about 660 kilometres to the west northwest of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands. Recently it has been moving to the northwest at 6 km/h.
The system will become slow moving again over the weekend before moving south or southwest on Monday, possibly moving out of the region on Monday or Tuesday. The environment is not favourable for further development and there is a Very Low risk of it developing into a cyclone.
It is not expected to impact the Cocos (Keeling) Islands.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Saturday:Very Low
Sunday:Very Low
Monday:Very Low

老農民版夜神月

最新風場已不再支持其擁有TD強度,JTWC18Z降其為DB

95S INVEST 210326 1800 10.4S 90.4E SHEM 20 1004

SH, 95, 2021032612,   , BEST,   0, 109S,  908E,  25, 1003, TD,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1006,  150,  60,   0,   0,   S,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,
SH, 95, 2021032618,   , BEST,   0, 104S,  904E,  20, 1004, DB,  34, NEQ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1006,  140,  50,   0,   0,   S,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,

老農民版夜神月

JTWC0930Z取消評級

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.8S 90.8E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

老農民版夜神月

目前看來，能起死回生的機率已是非常之低