簽到天數: 1650 天 [LV.Master]伴壇終老
|
老農民版夜神月|2021-3-30 09:27
|
顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2021-3-30 11:45 編輯
JTWC0130Z評級Low
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.6N
92.4E, APPROXIMATELY 357 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PHUKET, THAILAND.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A DISORGANIZED
DISTURBANCE WITH WEAK FLARING CONVECTION THAT IS OFFSET TO THE WEST OF
AN AREA OF BROAD, ELONGATED, AND ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION.
A 291935Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A LACK OF CONSOLIDATION
AND FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. HOWEVER, INVEST 90B IS IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, ABUNDANT WESTWARD OUTFLOW, AND LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE SPLIT IN DEVELOPING THIS SYSTEM.
NVGM INDICATES CONSOLIDATION AND INTENSIFICATION TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
(TC) STRENGTH BY TAU 66, GFS SHOWS SOME CONSOLIDATION AND A BRIEF
INTENSIFICATION TO TC STRENGTH BY TAU 84, AND UKMET AND ECMWF INDICATE
THAT 90B WILL CONSOLIDATE MARGINALLY WITHOUT REACHING TC STRENGTH WITH
THE MODEL CONSENSUS TRACKING THE VORTEX GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD YANGON, MYANMAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW. 
|
|
