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04P.Seth 逐漸轉化

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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2021-12-31 17:02 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC06Z報維持Medium評級
ABPW10 PGTW 310600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/310600ZDEC2021-010600ZJAN2022//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 18.4S 151.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.2S 152.4E, APPROXIMATELY
403 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY
CLASSIFIED AS A SUBTROPICAL STORM, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS HAVING
BOTH TROPICAL AND MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE FEATURES. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY FROM THE
CAIRNS RADAR DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 302031Z
SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES DISORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL BANDING
WITH A WEAKLY-DEFINED LLCC. THIS SYSTEM IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF A
SUBTROPICAL JET. UPPER-LEVEL FEATURE TRACK WINDS INDICATE A
DEVELOPING ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SYSTEM WITH IMPROVED EQUATORWARD AND
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) HAS
REMAINED MODERATE TO LOW (10-15 KTS). SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
CONDUCIVE AT 29-30C. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER INCREASING VWS (40-50 KTS) WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
SST VALUES, AND IS FORECASTED TO TRANSITION TO A SUBTROPICAL
GALEFORCE LOW AFTER TAU 24. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 35 TO 40 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 994 MB. FOR HAZARDS AND WARNINGS, REFERENCE THE FLEET
WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER TO
LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST AUTHORITY. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.//
NNNN
abpwsair (33).jpg
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2021-12-31 17:04 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2021-12-31 17:11 編輯

J目前已定為SS,可能成為BoM有升格JTWC卻漏升的TC
SH, 97, 2021123106,   , BEST,   0, 200S, 1537E,  45,  991, SS,  34, NEQ,  135,  200,  145,   95, 1003,  215,  90,   0,   0,   S,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, M,
97S_b13.gif 97S_b13rbtop.gif 97S_b13bd.gif 20211231.0627.f16.91pct91h91v.97S.INVEST.45kts.991mb.20S.153.7E.090pc.jpg
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2021-12-31 17:23 | 顯示全部樓層
BoM第一報正報,06Z隨即直升澳式C2
IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0715 UTC 31/12/2021
Name: Tropical Cyclone Seth
Identifier: 08U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 20.0S
Longitude: 154.2E
Location Accuracy: within 30nm (55 km)
Movement Towards: east southeast (120 deg)
Speed of Movement: 12 knots (22 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 50 knots (95 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 70 knots (130 km/h)
Central Pressure: 991 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 120 nm (220 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 180 nm (335 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 120 nm (220 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 80 nm (150 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 90 nm (165 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:  nm ( km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 30 nm (55 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS  STT:S0.0/03HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 160 nm (295 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  31/1200: 20.6S 155.4E:     050 (090):  050  (095):  983
+12:  31/1800: 20.9S 156.2E:     065 (115):  050  (095):  981
+18:  01/0000: 21.6S 157.1E:     080 (145):  050  (095):  982
+24:  01/0600: 22.2S 157.8E:     095 (175):  050  (095):  981
+36:  01/1800: 24.3S 158.7E:     125 (230):  050  (095):  982
+48:  02/0600: 26.4S 158.6E:     150 (280):  050  (095):  979
+60:  02/1800: 27.2S 157.9E:     160 (300):  045  (085):  982
+72:  03/0600: 27.4S 157.4E:     185 (345):  040  (075):  985
+96:  04/0600: 26.4S 156.3E:     250 (465):  040  (075):  988
+120: 05/0600: 26.3S 155.5E:     340 (620):  035  (065):  989
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Seth has continued to confound the CIMSS estimated 25 knots of
northwesterly deep layer wind shear and has maintained convection around the
LLCC position. Indeed its convective signature has continued to improve. Strong
synoptic forcing from both northwesterly monsoon northeast of the centre and
ESE trade flow to the south has offset this shear.

Dvorak is based on a curved band pattern, with 0.75 wrap. DT is 3.0. MET is 2.5
based on a 24 hour D trend. PT was adjusted to 3.0, giving final T 3.0.

Gales have been recorded at Marion Reef, Frederick Reef, and Cato Island during
recent hours. Frederick Reef has measured the strongest winds as the system has
approached, reaching 50 knots (10 minute mean) on two occasions. This
measurement suggests category 2 intensity has been attained (current intensity
analysed at 50 knots), with storm force winds suspected to be confined to the
southeast quadrant.

The wind shear should increase further during the next 36 hours, which may
weaken the convective signature, however synoptic enhancement of the surface
winds are reflected in NWP guidance to sustain gales. By late Saturday (+36h) a
mid-latitude upper level low will approach and enhance the surface circulation
through baroclinic processes peaking on Sunday (+48h) when it will have
'hybrid' tropical/sub-tropical characteristics over SSTs of ~26C.

The system is being steered to the east southeast under the deep NW flow. A
more southerly track is expected later Sunday with the upper low's approach and
then will slow on Sunday (+48h) and then meander with weak steering.

By Monday the system should gradually weaken following the passage of the upper
low and have transitioned from being tropical to be classified as a
sub-tropical low. Gales persist to the south and west for longer. There is a
considerable spread of track possibilities at this range including a drift
towards the eastern Australian coastline.

The most significant hazard to coastal communities in the short to medium term
is large waves that could affect a significant stretch of coastline over the
duration of this event.  



Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 31/1330 UTC.

IDQ65001 (1).png Screenshot_20211231-164318_Chrome.jpg
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2022-1-1 03:07 | 顯示全部樓層
12Z升格04P sh0422.gif 04P_311200sair.jpg

WDPS31 PGTW 311500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SETH) WARNING NR
001//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 20.8S 155.3E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 50 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 427 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BRISBANE,
AUSTRALIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 17 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 20 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
TC 04P (SETH) HAS RAPIDLY TRANSITIONED FROM A HYBRID-TYPE SYSTEM
WITH PRIMARILY SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS, TO A WELL-DEFINED
TROPICAL CYCLONE. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTED THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF A SYMMETRIC BALL OF DEEP
CONVECTION NEAR THE ASSESSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC),
WHICH DETACHED FROM THE COMMA-SHAPED BAND OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
BETWEEN THE 0600Z AND 1000Z HOURS. A 310910Z GPM COLOR 89GHZ
COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATED THE LLCC HAD TUCKED UNDER THE
AREA OF SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED CONVECTION. AT THAT TIME,
NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR WAS BEARING DOWN ON THE SYSTEM AND ELONGATING
THE CONVECTIVE AREA, BUT SUBSEQUENT IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE SHEAR HAS
RELAXED, AND ALLOWED THE CONVECTIVE AREA TO CONSOLIDATE. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A
311146Z ASCAT-C BULLSEYE PASS. THE BULLSEYE PASS ALSO PROVIDED HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL INTENSITY, WHICH IS SET SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN THE AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES. SURFACE WIND
OBSERVATIONS FROM FREDERICK REEF WERE AS HIGH AS 63 KNOTS (10-MIN)
AT 0900Z AS THE SYSTEM PASSED THE STATION, BUT THE HEIGHT OF THE
OBSERVATION WAS 30-METERS, WHILE THE SURFACE PRESSURE READING OF
989MB WOULD SUGGEST A 45-50 KNOT INTENSITY. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED OVER THE PAST SIX TO TWELVE HOURS, BUT
REMAIN ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE. SSTS ARE WARM AND POLEWARD
OUTFLOW IS GOOD, AND FOR THE TIME BEING SHEAR IS IS RELATIVELY LOW
IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE SYSTEM. BUT DRY AIR IS FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED TO THE WEST AND NORTH AND IS OFFSETTING THE OTHERWISE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTHEAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
   PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   ABRF: T3.5 - 55 KTS

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: MID-LEVEL DRY AIR TO THE WEST AND NORTH.

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING
MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: AS MENTIONED EARLIER, TC 04P (SETH) HAS
RAPIDLY TRANSITIONED FROM A HYBRID SUBTROPICAL LOW TO A
FULL-FLEDGED TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE PAST SIX TO TWELVE HOURS.
THE FORECAST HOWEVER CALLS FOR A TRANSITION BACK TO A SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLOW
DOWN AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEAST, THEN TURNS SOUTH BY TAU 36 AS THE
STEERING MECHANISM SHIFTS TO A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT
INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 24, THEN WEAKEN STEADILY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER INCREASING SHEAR, INCREASING
MID-LEVEL DRYNESS AND DECREASING SSTS. TC 04P WILL MOVE UNDER A
500MB TROUGH BEGINNING AROUND TAU 12, THEN TRANSITION TO A
SUBTROPICAL STORM NO LATER THAN TAU 48, AS IT BECOMES VERTICALLY
STACKED UNDER A 500MB COLD-CORE LOW AND CROSSES INTO WATERS COOLER
THAN 26C. WHILE THE FORECAST ONLY COVERS THE 48 HOUR PERIOD THROUGH
SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION, THE REMNANT GALE-FORCE SUBTROPICAL LOW WILL
LIKELY MEANDER SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 WHILE CONTINUING TO
STEADILY WEAKEN.

MODEL DISCUSSION: TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT, WITH
SIGNIFICANT SPREAD AFTER TAU 36. THERE ARE TWO DISTINCT GROUPINGS
IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE, WITH THE NORTHERN GROUP OF UKMET
ENSEMBLE, GALWEM, ECMWF AND THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE TURNING THE
CIRCULATION SHARPLY WEST TOWARDS THE COASTLINE AFTER TAU 36. THE
SOUTHERN GROUPING CONSISTING OF GFS, GFS ENSEMBLE AND HWRF TRACK
THE SYSTEM STEADILY SOUTHWARD PARALLEL TO THE COAST THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD AND BEYOND. THE JTWC FORECAST LIES ON THE EAST SIDE
OF THE ENVELOPE THROUGH TAU 36, THEN TURNS WEST ON THE SOUTHERN
SIDE OF THE NORTHERN GROUPING THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. CONSIDERING THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE MODEL SPREAD OCCURS
AFTER TAU 36, THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.
INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS SIMILARLY MIXED, WITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE
BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE, PEAKING BETWEEN 65 AND 75 KNOTS, WHILE
THE HWRF IS THE LEAST AGGRESSIVE, PEAKING AT THE ANALYSIS OF 50
KNOTS AND DECREASING STEADILY THEREAFTER. THE JTWC FORECAST MOST
CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE HWRF SOLUTION, WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN
20211231.1505.gw1.89pct89h89v.04P.SETH.50kts.989mb.20.8S.155.3E.91pc.jpg 20211231.1146.mtc.ASCAT.wind.04P.SETH.50kts-989mb.208S.1553E.25km.noqc.jpg
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2022-1-1 04:29 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC認為已達其巔峰 sh0422 (1).gif 04P_311800sair.jpg

WDPS31 PGTW 312100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SETH) WARNING NR
002//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 21.4S 156.6E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 421 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BRISBANE,
AUSTRALIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 22 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO WARM UP AND ELONGATE SOUTHEASTWARD;
HOWEVER, FEEDER BAND WRAP IMPROVED SLIGHTLY RESULTING IN SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE ON THE EXTRAPOLATED INTERSECTION OF THE FEEDER BANDS AND
COLOCATED WITH THE WARMEST CENTRAL PIXELS IN THE 311800Z IRBD
IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55KTS IS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK
ESTIMATE OF T3.5 AND REFLECTS THE SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.
ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM
SSTS AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET BY MODERATE TO STRONG
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR INTRUSION IN THE MID LEVELS. THE
CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR-
EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTHEAST.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTHEAST.


AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
   PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 51 KTS AT 311430Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 20-25 KTS
   SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: MID-LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION FROM THE WEST.

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC SETH WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK
UNDER THE NER. AFTER TAU 12, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST
WILL ASSUME STEERING AND DRIVE THE SYSTEM MORE SOUTHWARD. THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AS VWS INCREASES, SSTS
DECREASE, AND THE COLD DRY AIR INTRUSION PERSISTS RESULTING IN A
GRADUAL WEAKENING. CONCURRENTLY, BY TAU 24, THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN
TO TRANSITION BACK TO A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM AND BY TAU 36, WILL
BECOME FULLY SUBTROPICAL WITH AN EXPANSIVE WIND FIELD.  

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT,
LENDING MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN

SETH.png 20211231.2000.himawari-8.vis.04P.SETH.55kts.988mb.21.4S.156.6E.100pc (1).jpg
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2022-1-1 08:52 | 顯示全部樓層
BoM暫時降其為澳式C1
IDQ65001 (4).png 網頁擷取_1-1-2022_85057_www.bom.gov.au.jpeg 04P_gefs_latest.png
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2022-1-1 16:55 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC有點懶,發布了Final Warning sh0422.gif 04P_010600sair.jpg

WTPS31 PGTW 010900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SETH) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SETH) WARNING NR 004   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   010600Z --- NEAR 21.8S 157.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.8S 157.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   011800Z --- 23.6S 158.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   020600Z --- 25.5S 158.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
010900Z POSITION NEAR 22.3S 157.7E.
01JAN22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SETH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 426
NM NORTHEAST OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z
IS 18 FEET.//
NNNN
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2022-1-2 14:49 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2022-1-2 16:55 編輯

BoM判定已成為後熱帶氣旋
IDQ65001 (3).png sm20220102.0620.himawari-8.vis.04P.SETH.25kts.1004mb.26.3S.158.5E.100pc.jpg 20220102.0612.f18.91pct91h91v.04P.SETH.25kts.1004mb.26.3S.158.5E.085pc.jpg 20220102.0620.himawari-8.ir.04P.SETH.25kts.1004mb.26.3S.158.5E.100pc.jpg
IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0725 UTC 02/01/2022
Name: Ex Tropical Cyclone Seth
Identifier: 08U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 26.5S
Longitude: 158.6E
Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km)
Movement Towards: south southwest (207 deg)
Speed of Movement: 8 knots (15 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots (75 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 60 knots (110 km/h)
Central Pressure: 987 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 180 nm (335 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 120 nm (220 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:  nm ( km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 60 nm (110 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code:
Pressure of outermost isobar: 998 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 220 nm (405 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  02/1200: 27.0S 158.2E:     040 (075):  040  (075):  981
+12:  02/1800: 27.3S 157.9E:     050 (095):  040  (075):  981
+18:  03/0000: 27.6S 157.5E:     060 (110):  040  (075):  979
+24:  03/0600: 27.6S 157.3E:     065 (120):  035  (065):  981
+36:  03/1800: 27.2S 156.6E:     080 (145):  035  (065):  984
+48:  04/0600: 26.8S 156.2E:     100 (180):  030  (055):  989
+60:  04/1800: 26.2S 155.5E:     120 (225):  030  (055):  989
+72:  05/0600: 26.1S 154.9E:     150 (280):  030  (055):  989
+96:  06/0600: 26.5S 153.1E:     210 (390):  025  (045):  993
+120: 07/0600: 28.3S 152.2E:     350 (650):  020  (035):  995
REMARKS:
Ex-Tropical Cyclone Seth has lost its tropical structure as it interacts with
an upper trough and has transitioned to a sub-tropical system. Deep convection
is no longer present.

CIMSS ADT and SATCON estimates of 39 and 46 knots respectively (1 minute
means). The AiDT is 51 knots (1 minute mean). No recent surface observations.
The baroclinic influence on the system from the amplifying upper trough is
likely to be sufficient to sustain gale force winds through Sunday and Monday.
Intensity set  to 40 knots.  

The CIMMS 00Z wind shear analysis shows the system under WNW'ly shear of 12
knots, although there is a strong shear gradient to the south.  

Recent movement is to the south at an increasing speed. The system is expected
to slow and turn southwest during Sunday evening. From Monday, steering
influences are finely balanced with mid-level anticyclones to the east and
west. Model guidance indicates high uncertainty in the track through the middle
to late part of the week.  

The most significant hazard to coastal communities in the short to medium term
is large waves and abnormally high tides that could affect a significant
stretch of coastline over the duration of this event. As Seth approaches the
southeast Queensland coast during Tuesday and Wednesday there will be strong
and gusty winds ahead of the system possibly damaging.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
There will be no further bulletins for this system. Refer to Severe Weather Warnings.
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