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c789654|2011-9-17 16:57
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WTPN31 PGTW 170900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 18W (ROKE) WARNING NR 024
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170600Z --- NEAR 25.0N 129.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.0N 129.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 25.3N 130.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 25.8N 130.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 26.4N 129.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 27.0N 130.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 28.0N 131.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 31.2N 135.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 37.1N 142.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
170900Z POSITION NEAR 25.1N 130.0E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 18W (ROKE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 145 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION TIGHTLY WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A RADAR
REFLECTIVITY LOOP FROM OKINAWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, RJTD AND KNES RANGING FROM 45 TO 65 KTS.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS TO THE SOUTH OF A RIDGE
AXIS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT (05-10 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN OUTFLOW CHANNEL HAS DEVELOPED
TO THE NORTHEAST AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS ROBUST. TS 18W IS
CURRENTLY EMBEDDED IN A COL AREA BETWEEN TWO STEERING INFLUENCES - A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL EASTERN CHINA AND A
DEEP-LAYERED STR EAST OF JAPAN. RECENT STORM MOTION SUGGESTS THE
RIDGE EAST OF JAPAN HAS, FOR THE MOMENT, REGAINED CONTROL OF THE
SYSTEM. TS 18W IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER WEAKLY IN THE COL AREA OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS BEFORE TURNING NORTHEASTWARD AND BEGINNING EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION. IT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER THE
NEXT 3 DAYS DUE TO GOOD OUTFLOW, LOW VWS, AND HIGH SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE EVENTUAL RECURVATURE TO THE NORTHEAST BUT SHOW
DIFFERENT DIRECTIONS OF LOOPING NORTHWARD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 171500Z, 172100Z,
180300Z AND 180900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 19W (SONCA) WARNINGS
(WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
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