krichard2011

基本資料   
編號　　　　：91 W
擾動編號日期：2015 年 01 月 06 日 09 時
消散日期　　：2015 年 01 月 09 日 18 時

91W.INVEST.15kts-1004mb-3.0N-160.0E

t02436

JTWC評級Low

1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 3.0N 160.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 260 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALED A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH
LOW TO MODERATE (05 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAIR
OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS SLOWLY DEVELOPING THIS
SYSTEM (GREATER THAN 72 HOURS) AS IT PROCEEDS WEST. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

GFS 00Z

krichard2011

GFS 預測有機會南北三旋
不過強度預測上 稍微不如前幾次的預測
至於91W最近幾個小時 對流有暴發起來的跡象
不過以稍早掃到的底層來看 仍有待整合
與剛剛對流鬆散的樣子有明顯改善
環境上大略是支持發展的 會不會成為今年第一個颱風
挺值得大家觀察...

t02436

JTWC提升評級至Medium

  B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 3.0N 160.0E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 2.5N 157.6E, APPROXIMATELY 270 NM SOUTH OF
POHNPEI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLOWLY
CONSOLIDATING, PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH FORMATIVE BANDING. A 062317Z METOP-B 89 GHZ IMAGE INDICATES
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE LLCC. A
062315Z ASCAT IMAGE REVEALS A BROAD BUT DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 15
TO 20 KNOT WINDS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A MARGINALLY-
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY BROAD UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE, ENHANCED BY AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.

Meow

JTWC 已停止評級。若按照 GFS 預測，91W 要到週日以後才會比較明顯發展，但強度可能在 TS 下限邊緣。

ABPW10 PGTW 080600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/080600Z-090600ZJAN2015//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.4N
154.2E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.0S
158.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.1S 158.7E, APPROXIMATELY 685 NM EAST
OF PORT MORESBY, PNG. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS DISORGANIZED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AND ILL-
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (05 TO 10
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY,
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.//
NNNN

ben811018

這隻後期滿有戲的
路徑EC.GFS都差度多
但強度就略有差異了