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JTWC 01Z評級LOW
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
15.5S 170.3E, APPROXIMATELY 430 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SMALL LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH SLIGHT FLARING CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY BELOW A REGION OF FAVORABLY LOW (5-10 KT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR BUT WITH MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE (28-29 CELSIUS) IN THE VICINITY OF
VANUATU. GLOBAL DYNAMIC MODELS MAINTAIN A CIRCULATION TRAVELLING
EAST TOWARDS FIJI IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BUT WITH ONLY GFS AND NAVGEM
FORECASTING DEVELOPMENT AROUND TAU 48. IN ADDITION, THEY HIGHLIGHT
THE POSSIBILITY OF 91P INITIALLY HAVING SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS,
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH, BEFORE
CONSOLIDATING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN LATER TAUS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW. 
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