老農民版夜神月

評級提升至Medium

(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.9S 163.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.6S 165.9E, APPROXIMATELY
336 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 292325Z GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT
FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS A MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
FAIR OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 99P WILL TRACK EASTWARD
WITH STEADY INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

老農民版夜神月

JTWC升格TD

99P INVEST 210129 1200 13.5S 163.5E SHEM 25 999

霧峰追風者

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD07F [1000HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2S 162.9E AT
291200 UTC. TD07F SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 AND
IR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERY SURFACE REPORTS.
THE SYSTEM LIES IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTH OF SUPPOSED LLCC. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED TO
THE SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE WITH GOOD EQUATOWARD AND POLEWARD OUT
FLOW AND UPPER DIVERGENCE. SST IS AROUND 29 TO 30 DEGREE CELSIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE MOVING THE SYSTEM EASTWARDS WITH FURTHER DEEPENING
AS IT MOVES TOWARDS FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE AND THEN MODERATE TO HIGH

霧峰追風者

(3) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
13.5S 163.5E, APPROXIMATELY 371 NM NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 291006Z MHS 89
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS), GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (28-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 99P WILL INTENSIFY AND
TRACK EASTWARD.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20
TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW