B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 3.9N
146.3E, APPROXIMATELY 588 NM SOUTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED ENHANCED
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND A 200006Z MHS METOP-B 89GHZ SATELLITE
IMAGE SHOW A VERY BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
AREAS OF FLARING CONVECTION TO THE NORTH. A 192311Z ASCAT PARTIAL
PASS SHOWS A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH PRIMARILY 5-10 KNOT WINDS, WITH
15 KNOT WINDS LOCATED TO THE NORTH. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED IN A POOR TO MODERATE ENVIRONMENT FOR CYCLOGENESIS WITH
MODERATE TO HIGH (20-30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, BUT OFFSET BY
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE.
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE AGREEMENT THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO
THE NORTHWEST AND COULD BEGIN CONSOLIDATION WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
