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01E.Adrian 東太最早生成首旋 風切影響 降格熱低

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發佈時間: 2017-5-8 05:53

正文摘要:

本帖最後由 s6815711 於 2017-5-16 11:40 編輯   熱帶風暴   編號:01 E 名稱:Adrian   基本資料   擾動編號日期:2017 年 05 月 08 日 03 時 命名日期  :2017 年 ...

W環 發表於 2017-5-12 14:08
Adrain FW
WTPN31 PHNC 111600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01E (ADRIAN) WARNING NR 008   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   111200Z --- NEAR 11.1N 93.6W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.1N 93.6W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   120000Z --- 11.8N 94.5W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   121200Z --- 12.5N 95.5W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   130000Z --- 13.0N 96.3W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   131200Z --- 13.4N 97.1W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   141200Z --- 13.0N 98.0W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   151200Z --- 12.5N 98.5W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 00 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   161200Z --- 12.5N 98.5W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    ---
REMARKS:
111600Z POSITION NEAR 11.3N 93.9W.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01E (ADRIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1832 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z
IS 8 FEET.
//
2017EP01_4KMIRIMG_201705120515.gif


vis0-lalo.gif

點評

alu
已經撤編了  發表於 2017-5-12 22:08
t02436 發表於 2017-5-11 16:55
NHC 03Z降TD,09Z再調降強度至25節,並不再看好短期內重回熱帶風暴。
000
WTPZ41 KNHC 110834
TCDEP1

Tropical Depression Adrian Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012017
400 AM CDT Thu May 11 2017


The cloud pattern has deteriorated significantly, and it now
consists of a broad swirl of low clouds. Most of the convection is
well removed to the north and is already over the coast of Mexico. I
was tempted to declare the system dissipated at this time and issue
the last advisory.
However, it is prudent to confirm the rapid
weakening with early visible images, and also to be sure that
convection does not redevelop near the center.

The GFS insists on intensification, but the ECMWF dissipates the
system quickly. A compromise between these two models is to keep a
weak and shallow remnant low drifting west-northwestward and then
westward within the low-level flow for the next several days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/0900Z 10.9N  93.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
12H  11/1800Z 11.3N  94.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H  12/0600Z 12.0N  95.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H  12/1800Z 12.5N  96.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H  13/0600Z 12.5N  96.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  14/0600Z 12.5N  97.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  15/0600Z 12.5N  97.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  16/0600Z 12.5N  97.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Avila

083904_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png

rbtop-animated.gif
W環 發表於 2017-5-11 09:34
今天風切的問題有所改善
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t02436 發表於 2017-5-10 09:43
NHC 2017東太平洋熱帶氣旋報文第一報存檔
000
WTPZ41 KNHC 092039
TCDEP1

Tropical Depression One-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012017
400 PM CDT Tue May 09 2017

The cloud pattern of the low pressure area located a few hundred
miles south-southwest of El Salvador has continued to become better
organized, with developing convective banding features.  Also, data
from a recent ASCAT overpass showed that a closed circulation has
developed.  Therefore advisories are being initiated on this system.
The intensity is set at 30 kt in agreement with the scatterometer
measurements and a Dvorak classification from SAB. The tropical
cyclone is expected to remain over warm waters of SSTs near 30 deg C
through the forecast period, and the global models show the system
remaining beneath an upper-level anticyclone with well-defined
outflow.  Thus, strengthening is likely and the official intensity
forecast is a little below the intensity model consensus.

Geostationary satellite and scatterometer fixes indicate that the
initial motion is 300/5 kt.  The tropical cyclone is expected to be
situated to the south of a mid-level anticyclone, centered over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico, for the next several days.  This
steering pattern should maintain a general west-northwestward motion
through 72 hours or so.  Later in the forecast period, the
anticyclone is predicted to weaken and this should induce a turn to
the north.  The official track forecast is roughly in the middle of
the dynamical track guidance, and is between the GFS and ECMWF
solutions.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/2100Z  9.3N  91.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  10/0600Z  9.7N  91.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  10/1800Z 10.1N  93.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
36H  11/0600Z 10.5N  94.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
48H  11/1800Z 10.8N  95.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
72H  12/1800Z 12.0N  96.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
96H  13/1800Z 13.0N  96.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  14/1800Z 14.0N  96.0W   80 KT  90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

205711_5day_cone_with_line.png

點評

哈哈 我是懶著去抓NHC的  發表於 2017-5-10 18:07
jwpk9899 發表於 2017-5-10 05:59
01E 東太首旋誕生 上看C2或更高
ep012017.20170509210456.gif

點評

跟CWB之前蓮花那個正圓形有得比XD  發表於 2017-5-10 18:06
這潛勢範圍真大@@  發表於 2017-5-10 09:56

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