(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 01W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
11.6N 111.9E, APPROXIMATELY 305 NM EAST OF HO-CHI-MINH CITY,
VIETNAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 131123Z
MHS NOAA-18 89GHZ MICROWAVE PASS INDICATE FRAGMENTED BANDING AND
DEEP FLARING CONVECTION NORTH OF A SYMMETRIC LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS GOOD POLEWARD DIFFLUENT OUTFLOW AND
LIGHT TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SURROUNDED BY
HIGHER VALUES IN ALL QUADRANTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. BASED ON THE OVERALL IMPROVED CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO LOW.
17Z立刻提升評級制Medium
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS 01W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.6N 111.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 111.9E, APPROXIMATELY
310NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OVER A
SLOWLY-CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 131123Z
NOAA-18 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS AN EXPOSED LLCC WITH FORMATIVE BUT
FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING DISPLACED TO THE NORTHWEST DUE TO
SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). MULTIPLE SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE LLCC SHOW 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS AND SLP NEAR
1005MB. RECENT ASCAT DATA INDICATES 25 TO 30 KNOT NORTHERLY WINDS
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH DIFFLUENT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW OFFSET BY MODERATE VWS, AND SST VALUES OF 27-28C. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY TRACK, GENERALLY TOWARD THE
COAST OF VIETNAM, OVER THE NEXT DAY WITH WEAK DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
JMA持續維持TD
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 11N 112E ALMOST STATIONARY.