南半球本年度首個達到65kt的熱帶氣旋，在西南印度洋這強度就叫「熱帶氣旋」。

即將以35節中度熱帶風暴下限強度通過留尼旺西方近海，兩個機構都認為後期還有小幅增強的趨勢。

** WTIO22 FMEE 070612 ***
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 07/02/2017
AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 016/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 07/02/2017 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 4  (CARLOS)  995 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.3 S / 55.3 E
(NINETEEN    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FIVE    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 60NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 150
NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2017/02/07 AT 18 UTC:
20.7 S / 54.1 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2017/02/08 AT 06 UTC:
22.0 S / 53.3 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

18Z時評級提升至High

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 14.1S 55.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.1S 55.5E, APPROXIMATELY 405
NM NORTH OF LA REUNION. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
IMPROVED BANDING. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY REVEALS FORMATIVE
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN IMPROVED LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, SST VALUES ARE FAVORABLE AT 28 TO 29C.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT, SHOWING THE SYSTEM TRACKING SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD WHILE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS HIGH.