簽到天數: 4453 天 [LV.Master]伴壇終老
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s6815711|2017-3-24 06:09
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13Z評級提升至Medium
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.4S 154.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.7S 152.2E, APPROXIMATELY
161 NM NORTHEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 230813Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW PATCHES
OF CONVECTION BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO A STILL SLIGHTLY ELONGATED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH SOME BANDING BEGINNING TO FORM.
THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF GOOD OUTFLOW
ALOFT, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (29-30 C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE
DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH
INTENSIFICATION GRADUALLY OCCURRING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
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