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15S.Ernie 澳洲海域近11年首120kt氣旋

簽到天數: 1989 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

ben811018|2017-4-9 14:06 | 顯示全部樓層


雲圖影片~
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簽到天數: 173 天

[LV.7]常住居民III

W環|2017-4-10 17:12 | 顯示全部樓層
BOM:後熱帶氣旋
JTWC: FW
100900Z POSITION NEAR 18.9S 102.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (ERNIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 660 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
SYSTEM, AND SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS SUPPORTED BY A 100244Z ASCAT PASS
SHOWING 35 KNOT WINDS (WITH ISOLATED 40 KNOTS) ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DEGRADE WITH
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES INCREASING TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND SSTS
DROPPING TO 25C. TC ERNIE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED STR POSITIONED OVER
NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA. THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO DISSIPATE AND IS
FORECAST TO REACH FULL DISSIPATION BY TAU 12, DUE TO THE PERSISTENT
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN
PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 15
FEET.//
NNNN


IDW60280.png


點評

總結:強度大起大落,增強很快散得也快  發表於 2017-4-10 17:26
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簽到天數: 582 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

蜜露|2017-4-10 18:37 | 顯示全部樓層


巔峰圖 ~~
有美式Cat.5的潛力 .

20170407.1200.himawari-8.ir.15S.ERNIE.95kts.963mb.15.4S.110.3E.100pc.jpg


20170407.1200.himawari-8.ircolor.15S.ERNIE.95kts.963mb.15.4S.110.3E.100pc.jpg


向日葵的Vapor在NRL好像都不正常?  不在貼了

點評

我給這個颱風10分鐘平均風速120kts,1分鐘平均風速140kts,915hpa  發表於 2017-4-10 21:31
我也覺得有CAT5的潛力,尤其是那清空幾乎見底的風眼。  發表於 2017-4-10 20:59
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