(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 9.3S 134.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.4S 132.5E, APPROXIMATELY 275
NM NORTH OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH PERSISTING
CONVECTION BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE CENTER. A 251324Z AMSU-B METOP-
A 89GHZ MICROWAVE PARTIAL PASS SHOWS SHALLOW CONVECTION LOCATED OVER
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN A
MARGINAL BUT IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25
KNOTS), THAT IS BEING OFFSET BY STRONG POLEWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW
AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31 CELSIUS). GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BUT ARE IN DISAGREEMENT
AS TO WHEN AND HOW STRONGLY THE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. DUE TO THE IMPROVING
ENVIRONMENT THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
A weak tropical low, 1007 hPa, is located in the Arafura Sea, near 7.5S, 137.5E, about 530 km north of Nhulunbuy at 12:30pm CST on 23 April 2017. The tropical low is expected to take a southwest track across the Arafura Sea and slowly develop during the coming days with an increasing risk that it could reach cyclone strength on Wednesday.
Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:
Monday : Low.
Tuesday : Low.
Wednesday : Moderate.
In the longer term the low is forecast to move into the Timor Sea towards the end of the week.
