W環

倒是高層的反氣旋一直在它的東面，風切一直處於中等的水平。

s6815711

結構愈來愈好
JTWC將強度上望C3
北方的OHC含量真的非常驚人

W環

看起來即將捲成一圈了，帶著旋臂。

krichard2011

補上FMS第一報 報文
目前上看 80 KT
似乎有開始整合底層結構的跡象

1. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A2 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
   
2. May 030836 UTC.
   
3. 
   
4. TROPICAL CYCLONE DONNA CENTRE 994HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.1S 171.2E AT
   
5. 030600 UTC.  POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI-8 EIR AND VIS IMAGERY
   
6. AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS.  CYCLONE MOVING ESE 02KTS.  MAXIMUM
   
7. 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 40 KNOTS.
   
8. 
   
9. ORGANIZATION GOOD WITH PRIMARY BAND WRAPPING INTO LLCC. CONVECTION
   
10. REMAINS PERSISTANT. SYSTEM LIES UNDER A UPPER RIDGE IN LOW SHEARED
    
11. ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES
    
12. CELCIUS. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED WEST-SOUTHWEST ALONG THE
    
13. PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL HIGH.
    
14. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON CURVED BAND PATTERN WITH 0.65 WRAP ON LOG 10
    
15. SPIRAL, YIELDS DT=3.0, MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT. THUS
    
16. YIELDING,
    
17. T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS
    
18. 
    
19. FORECASTS :
    
20. AT 12 HRS VALID AT 031800 UTC 13.3S 170.7E MOV WSW AT 03 KT WITH 60
    
21. KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
    
22. AT 24 HRS VALID AT 040600 UTC 13.7S 169.7E MOV WSW AT 04 KT WITH 70
    
23. KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
    
24. 
    
25. OUTLOOK :
    
26. AT 36 HRS VALID AT 041800 UTC 14.1S 168.7E MOV WSW AT 04 KT WITH 75
    
27. KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
    
28. AT 48 HRS VALID AT 050600 UTC 14.5S 167.6E MOV WSW AT 05 KT WITH 80
    
29. KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
    
30. 
    
31. THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE DONNA WILL
    
32. BE ISSUED AROUND 031400 UTC.
    
33. 
    
34. 
    

複製代碼

W環

命名DONNA

W環

系統的對流頗深厚，主要集中在中心密集雲區的東面，雲頂溫度受日際變化影響稍有回升。

W環

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI May 020930 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD21F CENTER [1004HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 12.1S
171.2E AT 020900UTC MOVING EASTWARDS AT ABOUT 05 KNOTS. POSITION POOR
BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATIONS AND PERIPHERAL
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.

ORGANISATION IS POOR WITH DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF
THE SUPPOSED LLCC. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 500HPA. SYSTEM
LIES JUST SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE IN A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS SLOWLY MOVE TD21F WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS WITH FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.

*********************************************************************
***************

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.

FMS: LOW