霧峰追風者

JTWC 21Z發布TCFA

WTXS21 PGTW 222230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 19.8S 39.1E TO 24.5S 41.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 221800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 20.5S 40.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 19 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 18.6S 42.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.5S 40.5E, APPROXIMATELY
11.7 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 221604Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER PARTIALLY COVERED BY DEEP
CONVECTION, WITH LOW LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. THE
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS), AND WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (26-28 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE SYSTEM TRACKING TO THE SOUTH AND ROUNDING THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR AND INTENSIFYING BEFORE TAKING AN
EASTWARD TRACK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20
TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
232230Z.
//
NNNN

jrchang5

JTWC於01220630Z提升評級為Medium。

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 17.0S 46.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.6S 42.6E, APPROXIMATELY
160 NM NORTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 220331Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A
BROAD AREA OF FORMATIVE BANDING WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTION TO THE
NORTH. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (15-25 KNOTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27-29
CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE MOST LIKELY TRACK OF THE
DISTURBANCE WILL BE TO THE SOUTHWEST WITHIN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

霧峰追風者

JTWC 21Z評級LOW

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
17.0S 46.2E, APPROXIMATELY 397 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 211846Z GMI 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A BROAD AREA OF TURNING THAT IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED OVER THE ISLAND OF MADAGASCAR WITH ITS PRIMARY CONVECTION FLARING
AND DISPLACED TO THE WEST. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF
EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, LOW TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-25 KNOTS), AND THE MADAGASCAR COASTAL WATERS
HAVE VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-31 CELSIUS). GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW THE MOST LIKELY TRACK OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL BE TO THE
WEST INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL BEFORE HEADING SOUTH AND RAPIDLY
INTENSIFYING. THE MODELS CURRENTLY HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM DUE TO BINARY INTERACTION WITH THE REMNANTS OF
TC 10S, LOCATED TO THE WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.