| FNMOC跟NRL都徹編了〜關心南半球氣旋的人真是少之又少 |
|
斐濟命名，09F GARRY WTPS11 NFFN 210600 TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A06 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 21/0617 UTC 2013 UTC. TROPICAL CYCLONE GARRY CENTRE 995HPA CAT 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.3S 172.8W AT 210500 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR GMS VIS IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING EAST AT ABOUT 14 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 35 KNOTS. ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY PAST 6 HOURS. PRIMARY BAND TRYING TO WRAP AROUND LLCC. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION AND IN A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF SYSTEM BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.6 WRAP ON LOG 10 SPIRAL, GIVING DT=3.0. MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT, THUS YIELDING T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT EASTWARDS WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. FORECASTS : AT 12 HRS VALID AT 211700 UTC 11.5S 171.5W MOV E AT 06 KT WITH 45 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 24 HRS VALID AT 220500 UTC 11.6S 170.7W MOV E AT 05 KT WITH 50 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE OUTLOOK : AT 36 HRS VALID AT 221700 UTC 11.6S 170.1W MOV E AT 04 KT WITH 60 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 48 HRS VALID AT 230500 UTC 11.7S 169.5W MOV E AT 03 KT WITH 65 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE |
|
好的 JTWC在稍早前將91P升格為10P了 另外斐濟前兩天也升格為09F囉 在此獻上一張升格的雲圖和一張用斐濟預報做出來的路徑圖 上頭有標示強度(KT) |
組圖打開中，請稍候......