阿隆

jwpk9899

剛剛發現 JTWC好像已經FW了....連報文都撤了....
看看未來會不會再發展囉...

麻友飯

接續上文:
JTWC對Oswald的預測有點厲害
FORECAST DATA

Time		Position		Strength		Wind Probabilities		Wind Model
GMT	Lead	Lat	Long	Peak Wind	Cat	TS	Cat 1 or Above	Wind Field
21 Jan, 18:00	12 hrs	15.2 S	141.7 E	40 kts	TS	To 12 hrs	To 12 hrs	N/A
22 Jan, 6:00	24 hrs	14.7 S	142.9 E	40 kts	TS	To 24 hrs	To 24 hrs	N/A
22 Jan, 18:00	36 hrs	14.8 S	143.6 E	40 kts	TS	To 36 hrs	To 36 hrs	N/A
23 Jan, 6:00	48 hrs	15.6 S	143.9 E	40 kts	TS	To 48 hrs	To 48 hrs	N/A
24 Jan, 6:00	72 hrs	16.6 S	144.0 E	40 kts	TS	To 72 hrs	To 72 hrs	N/A
25 Jan, 6:00	96 hrs	17.7 S	144.3 E	35 kts	TS	To 96 hrs	To 96 hrs	N/A
26 Jan, 6:00	120 hrs	18.8 S	144.9 E	35 kts	TS	To 120 hrs	To 120 hrs	N/A

登陸後72小時都能維持40kts的強度
可能與登陸後通過的
<400m高地平原(Plateau)較矮有關

阿隆

登陸前夕中心附近底層有轉漸鬆散,不過這樣的對流帶給半島上的壓力應還是不小吧?

JTWC第1報:強度初報只上看40kts,路徑預測未來將不會出海,然後繼續深入昆士蘭各省份:L...

CX723-A330

這個11P增強的速度真快(下圖來自維基百科):


風眼隱隱約現,看下去根本不像一個65 km/h的熱帶氣旋:L
只是它很快便要登陸約克角半島,登陸後風眼應該會消失了

jwpk9899

我知道我已經連續發了三帖了
不過 BOM在登陸前將它命名了是事實...
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0629 UTC 21/01/2013
Name: Tropical Cyclone Oswald
Identifier: 07U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 15.6S
Longitude: 141.1E
Location Accuracy: within 15 nm [30 km]
Movement Towards: east northeast [075 deg]
Speed of Movement: 9 knots [17 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots [65 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Central Pressure: 992 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 64-knot winds:   
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [35 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 998 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 80 nm [150 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time   : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]       : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 21/1800: 14.5S 142.1E:     040 [070]:  030  [055]:  993
+24: 22/0600: 13.9S 143.1E:     065 [120]:  020  [035]:  998
+36: 22/1800: 14.5S 144.1E:     085 [155]:  020  [035]:  997
+48: 23/0600: 15.5S 144.1E:     105 [190]:  020  [035]:  997
+60: 23/1800: 16.6S 143.6E:     120 [225]:  020  [035]:  997
+72: 24/0600: 17.4S 143.1E:     140 [265]:  020  [035]:  997
REMARKS:
Dvorak analysis based on a curved band pattern with 0.7 degree wrap on a log 10
spiral. DT is 3.0. MET not used as the system was over land 24 hours ago. FT
based on DT.

Northeast movement is expected to continue until landfall. Some numerical
guidance indicates more NNE'ly movement after 6 hours, but will assume this
occurs after landfall at this stage.

jwpk9899

阿隆 發表於 2013-1-21 10:09
一早看到這"張",這只還是擾動的底層嗎?
似乎已有螺旋+眼牆的樣子,越來越酷了

那個好像真得是風眼欸
雷達上 中心位置就剛好有個洞
底層掃描也看起來似乎是風眼 不過又要登陸了
但那裏的地勢說高也不高 也許能通過那裡(難道Jasmine要重現? PS:不知道它是誰的 請到論壇首頁的搜索打Jasmine就有了
別問我圖哪來的哦

jwpk9899

發布TCFA囉  現在看起來就像一個颱風了~
未來可能又會穿過陸地 不過去年他的前輩Jasmine就是穿過這後大爆發 飆到Cat4的
WTPS21 PGTW 210430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.9S 139.5E TO 14.4S 143.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 27 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
210232Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 15.8S
140.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.6S
136.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.6S 140.6E, APPROXIMATELY 75 NM
NORTHEAST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY IN CONJUNCTION WITH RADAR IMAGERY FROM MORNINGTON
ISLAND, SHOWS A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND
FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. A RECENT 210023Z ASCAT
PASS INDICATED 30 KNOT WINDS WERE LOCATED IN ALL QUADRANTS OF THE
SYSTEM. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) IN THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA
ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT (30 TO 31 DEGREES
CELSIUS). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS LOCATED
SLIGHTLY EQUATORWARD OF A DEVELOPING ANTICYCLONE, WHICH IS CREATING
LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KNOTS) AND GOOD RADIAL
OUTFLOW FOR THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 997 MB. BASED ON THE FORMATIVE BANDING, FAVORABLE SSTS,
AND IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
220430Z.//
NNNN