1325 百合中心登陸逐漸減弱

jwpk9899 · 2013-10-9 21:05

本帖最後由 jwpk9899 於 2013-10-9 21:06 編輯

速報! 西太平洋上盛開了一朵百合

** WTJP21 RJTD 091200 ***
WARNING 091200.
WARNING VALID 101200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1325 NARI (1325) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 998
HPA
AT 14.3N 129.2E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101200UTC AT 15.1N 126.8E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111200UTC AT 15.7N 123.4E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121200UTC AT 15.8N 119.5E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

ben811018 · 2013-10-9 19:39

EC系集～看來ＥＣ對這隻還滿有信心的

ktf · 2013-10-9 10:13

路徑差不多就這樣了,不過環流還算大
該帶上來的水氣也不會少,沒有暴雨,但明顯大雨可能也跑不掉(迎風面)

jwpk9899 · 2013-10-9 05:22

老J升格24W
預測進南海不過圈圈...

pc047869 · 2013-10-9 04:50

兩個都已經形成熱低壓
看來有可能會產生藤原效應
若產生藤原效應
靠近菲東的有可能會被往西南走
對台灣的傷害將會變小

ktf · 2013-10-9 00:42

本帖最後由 ktf 於 2013-10-9 00:50 編輯

以現在來看確實躲掉的機會不小,接下來會有冷空氣不過是弱冷
強冷要月中才南下

秋颱影響大主要是共伴,路徑就算登陸呂宋只要在15N以北
西移入南海照樣會讓東北部帶來暴雨
91W"目前初步"來看低緯西移入南海機會較大

關鍵在後頭是否再有系統發展起來

先前幾報數值是認為整個季風槽環流狹長
整合花很久,導致系統移動緩慢,等到接近或登陸呂宋時正好碰到強冷南下
所以產生強烈共伴

目前是91W明顯取得優勢主導,移速發展就會快得多
後幾報數值應該就會明朗的多
沒碰到要南下的強冷,那路徑很快就會有共識

ben811018 · 2013-10-9 00:13

RSMC第一報～

martin191919 · 2013-10-8 21:27

GW
WTPQ20 RJTD 081200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 081200UTC 15.0N 133.5E POOR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 091200UTC 15.1N 131.7E 120NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =