t02436

風力達標35Kts!
升格04B
明後兩天就可能登陸

krichard2011

目前雛形已經開始明顯了
JTWC發布TCFA

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.5N
87.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 86.3E, APPROXIMATELY 250 NM
SOUTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES CONSOLIDATING DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A
WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 182207Z TRMM 85
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT WITH FORMATIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT. A 181812Z OSCAT IMAGE INDICATES A DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH
10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND STRONGER WINDS
(25 TO 30 KNOTS) OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS WITH LIGHT
TO MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAIR POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

t02436

升評Medium!

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 89.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 87.6E, APPROXIMATELY 330 NM SOUTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION. A 181352Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTION WITH MULTIPLE BANDS WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LLCC. A 181512Z ASCAT IMAGE INDICATES AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH 10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND STRONGER WINDS (25 TO 30 KNOTS) OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS JUST SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW (10 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH GOOD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

krichard2011

JTWC最新一報已評Low
螺旋看起來還不錯

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.8N 89.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 405 NM SOUTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SHALLOW AND FRAGMENTED FORMATIVE
BANDS FEEDING INTO A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER FROM ALL
QUADRANTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE AREA IS JUST SOUTH OF
THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. NUMERIC MODELS PROJECT VERY WEAK
DEVELOPMENT FROM THIS SYSTEM. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.