krichard2011

真的是在逆境中快速發展 強度來到90kts
西方整個一大片乾空氣
但是乾空氣似乎對他絲毫沒有構成影響
不知道還能撐多久
CDO已經完整建立 風眼清晰

krichard2011

雖然長得扁了些
但是樣子還算不錯 風眼已經開始轉清晰了
未來強度應該不會太弱...不過前方仍是乾的不得了
環流小的確對抵抗乾空氣攻擊有很有效的幫助...

krichard2011

MFR已經升到65kt了
未來上看90kt
JTWC也上調強度從60kts一下子升到80kts
可見風眼轉清晰後 強度快速增強
從雲圖來看 高層眼正在清空中
WTIO30 FMEE 180626
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 16/2/20132014
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (AMARA)
2.A POSITION 2013/12/18 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.0 S / 70.8 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY DECIMAL EIGHT
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 4 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 1.0/18 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 978 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :41 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 280 SW: 190 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 200 SW: 110 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 90 SW: 80 NW: 80
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 50
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2013/12/18 18 UTC: 16.2 S / 69.3 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2013/12/19 06 UTC: 16.5 S / 67.8 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2013/12/19 18 UTC: 17.0 S / 66.2 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2013/12/20 06 UTC: 17.4 S / 64.4 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2013/12/20 18 UTC: 18.0 S / 63.1 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2013/12/21 06 UTC: 18.6 S / 62.3 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2013/12/22 06 UTC: 19.7 S / 62.6 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
120H: 2013/12/23 06 UTC: 20.7 S / 62.6 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=4.5

krichard2011

從最新的底層掃描來看
強對流已經繞完一圈了
就看現在的小巧結構能不能順利避開乾空氣的侵擾
原則上只要緯度不要下子衝太高
應該還是有機會發展

krichard2011

底層風眼正在建立中
從可見光來看 風眼算是還滿清楚的
不過前方環境偏乾
以現在的情況 環境不太適合他的發展
強度暫時不是很看好

t02436

jwpk9899

他悄悄的命名了Amara
而老j也默默地升格03S了
上望熱帶氣旋(80kt)  而老J目前上望60kt

WTIO30 FMEE 161902
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/2/20132014
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 2 (AMARA)
2.A POSITION 2013/12/16 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.8 S / 72.3 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY TWO DECIMAL THREE
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 7 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 130 SW: 190 NW: 190
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 70 NW: 130
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2013/12/17 06 UTC: 15.8 S / 71.5 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
24H: 2013/12/17 18 UTC: 15.8 S / 70.3 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2013/12/18 06 UTC: 15.8 S / 69.2 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2013/12/18 18 UTC: 15.9 S / 68.1 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2013/12/19 06 UTC: 16.1 S / 66.5 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2013/12/19 18 UTC: 16.3 S / 64.8 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2013/12/20 18 UTC: 16.8 S / 61.2 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
120H: 2013/12/21 18 UTC: 17.5 S / 60.0 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.5+

krichard2011

強對流已經開始往中心聚集了
底層正在建立中
JTWC也發布TCFA

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.2S
81.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.3S 76.5E, APPROXIMATELY 475 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLCC) WITH FLARING
CENTRALIZED DEEP CONVECTION. SSMIS PASSES FROM 151159Z AND 151302Z
INDICATE THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION IS SHEARED OFF TO THE WEST OF THE
SUSPECTED LLCC. POSITIONING HAS BEEN VERY DIFFICULT WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE AS MULTIPLE MESO-VORTICES HAVE POPPED OUT ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY AND UNRAVELED. CURRENT POSITION PHILOSOPHY IS TO STAY WITH
THE CENTER OF MASS WITHIN THE BROADER CIRCULATION. DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES HAVE BEGUN AT 151200Z AND ARE CALLING FOR A 25 KNOT
DISTURBANCE BUT THE MOST RECENT SCAT PASS (OSCAT FROM 150636Z)
INDICATES A 30 KNOT LLCC WHICH HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC DURING THE
PAST 24 HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS
APPROXIMATELY THREE DEGREES EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AXIS. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS MODERATE TO HIGH NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE
LLCC BUT HAS BEEN DECREASING DIRECTLY OVER THE LLCC TO LOW TO
MODERATE LEVELS DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS. ADDITIONALLY, OUTFLOW HAS
BEGUN TO PICK UP IN THE POLEWARD DIRECTION WITH A CONNECTION INTO
THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT RANGING FROM 26 TO 28 DEGREES CELSIUS BUT OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT IS MARGINAL. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS AGGRESSIVE IN
DEVELOPING THE DISTURBANCE INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND UPPER-LEVEL
CONDITIONS ARE IMPROVING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. DUE TO INCREASED SYMMETRY OF THE LLCC AND
IMPROVING UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.