簽到天數: 3280 天 [LV.Master]伴壇終老
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t02436|2013-12-28 07:45
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評級LOW
EC也認為是隻胖颱...
沿馬達加斯加沿岸北上
AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.7S 51.5E,
APPROXIMATELY 729 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LA REUNION. RECENT ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD, BUT CONSOLIDATING,
AREA OF TURNING WITH SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION. A RECENT
SCATTEROMETRY PASS REVEALS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION SURROUNDED BY 20
KNOTS WIND BARBS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND
GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED
BETWEEN A STRONG VWS GRADIENT TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH WHICH IS
PROBABLY HAMPERING FURTHER CONVECTIVE IMPROVEMENTS AT THIS TIME.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITH THE NEXT 72 TO 96 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
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