簽到天數: 815 天 [LV.10]以壇為家III
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martin191919|2014-1-28 22:25
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JTWC : LOW
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 9.0N 145.0E, APPROXIMATELY 260 NM SOUTH OF GUAM. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES FLARING, DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 281219Z METOP-B 89 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS AN AREA OF LINEAR DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN FLANK OF AN ILL-DEFINED LLCC. A 281124Z ASCAT IMAGE DEPICTS A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH WEAK CORE WINDS AND 15 TO 20 KNOT NORTHEASTERLY SURGE WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND WESTERN QUADRANT. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG DIFFLUENCE FUELING BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LLCC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW. |
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