krichard2011

這隻雖然已經深入陸地
稍早的可見光可以看到明顯的LLCC
代表進入陸地之後結構並未遭受太大的傷害
對流在剛剛再度爆發 會不會有什麼奇蹟
值得繼續看下去

martin191919

Potential Cyclones:  

At 1:00 pm EST [12:30 pm CST] Tuesday 4 February, Ex-Tropical Cyclone Fletcher
was located over land, near the far southeast Gulf of Carpentaria at 16.9S
141.3E, about 80 northeast of Karumba, Queensland. Refer to the latest tropical
cyclone warnings for further details [www.bom.gov.au/cyclone]. This low is
expected to move west southwest over the far southeast Gulf of Carpentaria
later today and may briefly redevelop into a tropical cyclone overnight
Tuesday, before moving across the Queensland Gulf Country during Wednesday,
then further west over the eastern Roper-McArthur or Barkly District of the
Northern Territory later on Wednesday or Thursday. This low is expected to
weaken as it moves inland and will weaken within the monsoon trough by Friday.

Likelihood of this low being a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:
Wednesday       Moderate  
Thursday        Low        
Friday          Low        


At 12:30 pm CST Tuesday 4 February, another tropical low, 996 hPa, was located
near 15.5S 132.3E, about 100 km west of Larrimah and moving east southeast at
14 km/h. This low is expected to continue moving east southeast to be located
over the Roper-McArthur District during Wednesday, then remain slow moving over
the eastern Roper-McArthur District during Thursday and Friday. By Saturday,
this low is expected to move west again. Although the low is expected to remain
over land, there is a possibility the low will move over the southwest Gulf of
Carpentaria on Thursday or Friday as it interacts with Ex-Tropical Cyclone
Fletcher, prior to recurving back to the west. For this reason, there is a
moderate risk that the low may develop into a tropical cyclone.

Likelihood of this low being a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:
Wednesday       Low        
Thursday        Moderate  
Friday          Moderate   

martin191919

JTWC:REMAINS LOW

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.3S
131.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.5S 130.6E, APPROXIMATELY 178 NM SOUTH
OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS TRACKED FURTHER
INLAND BUT HAS MAINTAINED ORGANIZATION WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. A 031636Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE AND
ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY ALSO SHOW A WELL-DEFINED LLCC WITH TIGHTLY-
WRAPPED CONVECTIVE BANDING. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE AN EASTWARD
TRACK OVER LAND THROUGH THE NEXT 3 DAYS; HOWEVER, THERE IS A SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY THAT THE SYSTEM MAY TRACK OVER, OR JUST SOUTH, OF THE
GULF OF CARPENTARIA AFTER TAU 36. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS
LOW.

martin191919

JTWC : DOWNGRADED TO LOW
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.5S
128.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.3S 131.0E, APPROXIMATELY 170 NM SOUTH
OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS TRACKED FURTHER
INLAND BUT HAS MAINTAINED ORGANIZATION WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. A 031130Z SSMIS IMAGE CONTINUES TO
DEPICT A DEFINED LLCC WITH FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING. ANIMATED
RADAR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED LLCC WITH TIGHTLY-WRAPPED
CONVECTIVE BANDING. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW INTO AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 23S 130E. THE BULK OF THE
DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE AN EASTWARD TRACK OVER LAND THROUGH THE NEXT
3 DAYS; HOWEVER, THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY THAT THE SYSTEM MAY
TRACK OVER, OR JUST SOUTH, OF THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA AFTER TAU 36.  
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. BASED ON
LAND INTERACTION THROUGH TAU 36, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
DOWNGRADED TO LOW.

甜心

登陸前後短暫中心很明顯，當地將先風後雨未來一天它的威力會逐漸減弱。

希望北澳災情別太嚴重。

frintezza1117

krichard2011 發表於 2014-2-3 11:25
稍早這底層看起來一度建構出底層風眼的樣子
不過現在結構又變差...

今早雷達也出現這樣美的結構, 但地面實測就是不達標, 登陸之後發展更趨困難

krichard2011

稍早這底層看起來一度建構出底層風眼的樣子
不過現在結構又變差...

新細明體

最新的兩張ASCAT掃描，風力非常不錯，亦顯示了一個明顯的LLCC。



老J亦已經將這個擾動評為Medium了

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.6S 126.8E,
APPROXIMATELY 245 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH MULTIPLE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS
WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LLCC. A 020239Z TRMM 37 GHZ IMAGE
DEPICTS A BROAD CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE WITH THE PRIMARY DEEP
CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING FROM THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT INTO THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT. A PARTIAL 020022Z ASCAT IMAGE INDICATES 25 TO 30
KNOT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM
TROUGHTON ISLAND, ABOUT 40 NM WEST OF CENTER, INDICATE 20 TO 25 KNOT
SUSTAINED WINDS AND SLP NEAR 997 MB. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A
MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 25S 132E. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK EASTWARD, SKIRTING THE COAST, WITH CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT, HOWEVER, HINDERED BY THE PROXIMITY TO LAND. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS MEDIUM.