t02436

這隻初步看來頗猛
編號3個小時06Z直接30kts
直接評級Medium

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.6S 126.8E,
APPROXIMATELY 245 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH MULTIPLE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS
WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LLCC. A 020239Z TRMM 37 GHZ IMAGE
DEPICTS A BROAD CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE WITH THE PRIMARY DEEP
CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING FROM THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT INTO THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT. A PARTIAL 020022Z ASCAT IMAGE INDICATES 25 TO 30
KNOT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM
TROUGHTON ISLAND, ABOUT 40 NM WEST OF CENTER, INDICATE 20 TO 25 KNOT
SUSTAINED WINDS AND SLP NEAR 997 MB. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A
MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 25S 132E. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK EASTWARD, SKIRTING THE COAST, WITH CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT, HOWEVER, HINDERED BY THE PROXIMITY TO LAND. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS MEDIUM.

渦度三隻都泛紅~